Defence Minister Richard Marles faces criticism over the proposed sale of Victoria Barracks, as experts warn the government risks underselling the 13-hectare military site by pressing ahead without clear development assurances. A prominent Sydney property investor, speaking anonymously, described the government’s approach as “half-baked” and cautioned that the lack of a defined planning framework could lead to a significantly discounted sale price.

Victoria Barracks, currently zoned exclusively for defence purposes, does not have any approved residential or mixed-use development plans in place. This means potential buyers would have no certainty regarding permissible uses or zoning changes, which remain subject to approval by the New South Wales Planning Department only after the property is sold. According to the investor, this uncertainty creates substantial risks for developers and complicates valuation efforts.

“The government would have to sell at a hugely discounted price if it was an unconditional sale,” the investor said. They noted that structured deals could involve a lower upfront payment with potential additional returns contingent on successful rezoning, but highlighted that such arrangements offer limited certainty for taxpayers and could delay any financial benefit to the government.

The investor also remarked on the timing of the sale, noting the current weakness of the development site market. “To sell a site of that size, you should only consider it when the market is strong,” they said, emphasizing that public assets should be managed with an eye toward maximizing returns for taxpayers.

Estimating the site’s “Nirvana” value between $1 billion and $2 billion, the investor suggested that even developing half of the base’s footprint could yield around $975 million. However, they stressed the absence of clear development guidelines would significantly reduce buyer confidence and impact the final sale price negatively.

Criticism extended to procedural concerns, with the investor calling the decision to proceed prior to clarifying planning issues “naive,” and warning that the government might ultimately be forced to “sell it for a song.”

Compounding the uncertainty is a move by the New South Wales Parliament to consider a private member’s bill introduced by former Liberal MP Anthony Roberts. The bill proposes that any changes in use or development applications for Victoria Barracks, if sold, be subject to approval by both Houses of Parliament. The investor stated that such a requirement “would kill” prospective development opportunities, further dampening the site’s appeal to potential buyers.

The government has yet to comment publicly on these concerns, and the future of Victoria Barracks remains uncertain as debate over the sale and its conditions continues.