As Melaka prepares for its upcoming state election nearly five years after the last polls, political alliances are increasingly in flux as former rivals consider new partnerships to strengthen their prospects, analysts say.
Barisan Nasional (BN) is reportedly set to hold discussions with both Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) ahead of the election, with each potential alliance carrying distinct strategic implications. Political observers emphasize that any collaboration will hinge not only on past vote counts but also on seat distribution, voter appeal beyond traditional bases, and the political risks of allying with former adversaries.
Universiti Malaya’s Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian highlighted PH and PN as the main contenders for a partnership with BN, though direct negotiations with PAS—PN’s principal component—remain a possibility. He noted that a BN-PAS alliance could consolidate Malay-Muslim support, whereas a BN-PH coalition might broaden appeal across ethnic and urban-rural divides. Despite lingering political repercussions from the 2021 Melaka crisis, current electoral calculations are expected to dominate decision-making.
The 2021 state election was precipitated by the defection of former Umno legislators Datuk Seri Idris Haron and Datuk Nor Azman Hassan from BN to PH, leading to an early poll in November that year. BN secured a commanding victory with 21 of 28 seats, while PH won five and PN two. Notably, PKR—a key component of PH—failed to win any of the 11 seats it contested.
Political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub observed that voter transferability remains a critical factor in evaluating possible alliances. A BN-PAS partnership could prevent a splintering of Malay votes, while BN aligning with PH would combine BN’s traditional rural Malay base with PH’s strength among urban and non-Malay voters. However, neither scenario presents a straightforward solution. Tawfik cautioned that a BN-PAS deal might alienate some BN grassroots supporters, while BN-PH cooperation could face internal resistance, especially in Umno strongholds. He also suggested that BN and PH could opt for post-election collaboration rather than formal pre-poll pacts.
Dr Azmi Hassan, senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, indicated a greater likelihood of BN negotiating specifically with PAS rather than the broader PN coalition. He emphasized that while a BN-PAS pact could minimize vote-splitting among Malay voters, disagreements over seat allocation could impede progress. According to Azmi, if PAS demands more than seven seats, BN’s leadership—particularly Umno—may be reluctant to concede, as these are traditionally their territories. This dynamic leaves open the possibility of BN seeking an understanding with PH if seat negotiations with PAS stall.
UiTM analyst C. Sara underscored the importance of evaluating electoral arrangements on a constituency-by-constituency basis rather than relying solely on statewide vote shares or previous results. She cautioned against assuming that last election’s outcomes predict the 2026 vote, noting that three- or four-cornered contests could dramatically shift voter behavior—and thus impact seat allocations more than overall vote percentages.
As Melaka’s political landscape continues to shift, the final shape of alliances remains uncertain. What is clear is that electoral calculations increasingly hinge on nuanced considerations of voter demographics, seat-level dynamics, and the delicate balance of political partnerships forged in the lead-up to the poll.