California Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra holds a commanding lead against his Republican opponent, Steve Hilton, as the state approaches its November 3 gubernatorial election, according to a recent poll. If elected, Becerra would become California’s first Latino governor, a milestone that has drawn varied responses among voters, particularly within the Latino community.
The survey, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in collaboration with a media organization, found Becerra supported by 61% of likely voters, compared with 34% backing Hilton, a former Fox News commentator. This represents a slight increase from a similar poll taken in mid-September, where Becerra led by 25 percentage points. The poll included 1,477 respondents who either already voted or were likely to vote, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Becerra, a former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, Congressman, and California Attorney General, has largely consolidated Democratic support, while Republicans have shown overwhelming support for Hilton. Poll analysts attribute Becerra’s strength to his ability to unify Democratic voters by sharply opposing policies of the Trump administration, which remains a significant issue shaping the election. Sixty-two percent of Becerra’s supporters cited opposition to Trump’s policies as their primary concern, surpassing other traditional campaign topics like crime, healthcare, and education.
The poll reveals generational and demographic splits in voter priorities. Voters under 50 tend to prioritize reducing the cost of living, which was highlighted by 40% of likely voters as a top issue. Those aged 50 and older are more focused on opposing Trump’s policies. Among Latino voters, concerns are more evenly divided between combating the Trump administration and reducing living costs, with additional attention given to issues such as lowering taxes, fighting crime, and protecting immigrant communities.
Despite the historic nature of Becerra’s candidacy, many voters remain cautious about the broader impact of electing a Latino governor. Just over one-third of all likely voters and 45% of Latino voters expressed pride in the prospect of a Latino governor. However, a majority in both groups did not see the election as particularly important or transformative. Additionally, 61% of Latino voters and 57% of the total sample said having a Latino governor would not significantly reduce racial inequalities in California, nor would it increase racial tensions.
Becerra’s favorability rating stands at 53%, with 41% viewing him unfavorably. Hilton faces greater challenges, with 56% of likely voters holding an unfavorable opinion and just 34% viewing him positively. Despite negative campaigning from Hilton, analysts suggest this has had little effect on Becerra’s standing.
Most Democrats (90%) and a majority of independent voters (80%) expect Becerra to win the race, while roughly half of Republicans and 58% of those identifying as MAGA supporters believe Hilton will prevail. However, in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one and the GOP has not captured a statewide office in two decades, analysts describe these beliefs among Republicans as hopeful rather than likely.
The poll was conducted from October 19 through Sunday in both English and Spanish and surveyed a representative cross-section of California’s registered voters, reflecting the state’s diverse electorate and the complexity of voter attitudes heading into the election.