Beijing is emerging as a key player in determining who will become the first woman to serve as secretary general of the United Nations, as the Security Council remains divided after three rounds of informal voting failed to produce a clear frontrunner. Two Latin American candidates, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, have gained momentum in the race to succeed incumbent Antonio Guterres, whose term ends on December 31.

Rebeca Grynspan, an economist who currently leads the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s ambassador to the UN, both traveled to Beijing this year to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. While China has not publicly endorsed either candidate, diplomatic sources suggest Beijing is closely weighing options between the two. China reportedly ruled out Rafael Grossi, the Argentine director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency and widely regarded as the preferred candidate of the United States. Grossi’s ties to Argentine President Javier Milei, who has publicly criticized the Chinese government, may have contributed to Beijing’s decision.

Under UN procedures, the 15-member Security Council recommends a candidate to the 193-member General Assembly, which then appoints the secretary general. A candidate requires at least nine votes in the council and no veto from any of the five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Voting is preceded by secret straw polls to gauge member positions, with discouragement votes from permanent members clearly identified through color-coded ballots.

In the most recent straw poll, Grynspan received nine encourage votes with several discourages, while Rodrigues-Birkett had eight encourages but an increasing number of discourage votes. The nature of discourage votes against Grynspan, including whether any came from permanent members, remains undisclosed. Both candidates have expressed support for principles important to China, including the one-China principle and adherence to the UN Charter.

Michelle Bachelet, former president of Chile and a candidate supported by figures including Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, withdrew from the race last week after receiving only one encourage vote against 11 discourages in the latest poll. Sources indicate China decisively opposed her candidacy due to strained relations stemming from her tenure as UN high commissioner for human rights and her critical report on abuses in Xinjiang, which China dismissed as disinformation.

While Beijing’s position on Grynspan versus Rodrigues-Birkett remains officially neutral, some diplomats suggest Grynspan has a slight edge, despite concerns over her connections to Israel and perceived closeness to Washington. If appointed, Grynspan would be the first Jewish secretary general. Conversely, the United States reportedly indicated opposition to Rodrigues-Birkett, reportedly linked to her 2024 statement characterizing conditions in Gaza as a "veritable genocide." The U.S. State Department has emphasized the importance of a candidate committed to reforming and streamlining the UN, but Guyana’s government has not responded publicly to these reports.

Observers expect the deadlock to be addressed during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Washington, with the potential for new compromise candidates to emerge if no consensus develops. The outcome of this contest will mark a historic moment for the United Nations, as it seeks its first female leader and reflects ongoing geopolitical complexities among permanent Security Council members.