Bernard Drainville would harm CAQ's standing

Saturday, April 11, 2026

A recent poll indicates that Bernard Drainville’s potential leadership of the Coalition Avenir Québec would reduce the party’s support to 8%, placing it near the bottom among provincial parties. This low backing, combined with Drainville’s declining personal popularity, suggests the CAQ may face weakened electoral prospects if he becomes leader, while rival Christine Fréchette’s rising support could offer a modest boost.

A recent opinion poll suggests that Bernard Drainville’s leadership of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) could significantly weaken the party’s standing in the province. According to the Léger-Québecor survey conducted over the past weekend, the CAQ’s share of voting intentions would drop to just 8% if Drainville, the Lévis Member of the National Assembly, were to become party leader. This would place the CAQ near the bottom of the provincial political spectrum, trailing behind parties such as Québec solidaire, the Conservatives, Parti Québécois, and the Liberals.

The poll also indicates a notable decline in Drainville’s personal popularity since the start of 2026. He is now ranked among the least favored politicians in Quebec alongside Conservative leader Éric Duhaime. Less than 25% of respondents hold a positive opinion of him, while a significantly larger proportion view him unfavorably. Even within the CAQ’s own base, his approval is modest; only 40% of party supporters express a positive view of Drainville.

Political analyst Jean-Marc Léger commented that Drainville’s “somewhat aggressive populist approach” has not converted media attention into broad public support. Although he has been a prominent figure in headlines, this visibility has failed to translate into electoral strength.

The poll was conducted just prior to the final endorsement of Drainville by key CAQ ministers Sonia Bélanger, Jonatan Julien, and Simon Jolin-Barrette, the latter being a prominent nationalist figure and Minister of Justice. Jolin-Barrette praised Drainville publicly during the closing days of the leadership race, but Léger cautioned that this late-stage backing is unlikely to have a significant impact on voter sentiment given the timing.

In contrast, Christine Fréchette, Drainville’s main rival for the CAQ leadership, has seen her popularity improve steadily. While initially less well-known to the public, Fréchette has gained 18 percentage points in favorable opinion over the course of the campaign. If she were to lead the party, the CAQ could expect its support to rise to approximately 18%, boosting its standing but still lagging behind the leading Liberal and Parti Québécois parties.

Despite the importance of this leadership contest—which will determine the next premier of Quebec—public interest appears limited. The survey found that nearly 70% of Quebecers are indifferent to the succession of François Legault, with voter engagement declining as the race has progressed. This suggests that the CAQ leadership contest has struggled to capture the broader public’s attention ahead of the decisive vote scheduled for Sunday, which involves about 20,000 registered party members.