As college football kicks off its 2026 season, several underdog teams are drawing attention despite widespread expectations of dominant performances by Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) programs over Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) opponents. Among these, two matchups stand out for bettors considering the potential of underdogs to challenge favored teams in Week 1.
One intriguing contest sees Marshall University travel to face Penn State on the road, where the Thundering Herd enter as 24.5-point underdogs. Penn State, under head coach James Franklin, has historically struggled against top-tier competition, posting a 4-21 record against Top 10 teams that contributed to Franklin’s dismissal last fall. However, Franklin’s teams have performed well against nonconference opponents, going 29-19 against the spread since 2014, making Penn State one of the most reliable programs for bettors in such matchups.
Marshall, led by quarterback Carlos Del Rio Wilson, offers a different profile. As one of the best returning signal callers at the Group of Six level, Del Rio Wilson returns for a second season working with offensive coordinator Rod Smith, a longtime disciple of Rich Rodriguez’s offensive philosophy. This continuity has fostered a dynamic quarterback-centered rushing attack; Del Rio Wilson amassed over 650 rushing yards in nine full games last season. The Thundering Herd’s rushing prowess could help them control the tempo and keep the game competitive.
Penn State’s roster, particularly on defense, has experienced notable turnover. The departure of 12 defensive linemen through the NFL draft and transfer portal has weakened its defensive front. This vulnerability could be exploitable by Marshall’s speedy backfield, including running back Jo’Shon Barbie, who emerged late last season. Additionally, Marshall’s defense may improve under new coordinator Brad Lambert, providing further hope for the visitors to remain competitive deep into the game.
Another game attracting attention involves Texas State hosting the University of Texas Longhorns, with the combined score total set at 59.5 points. While some might view this as a standard in-state mismatch, this game features a highly anticipated quarterback duel. Texas’s Arch Manning starts his redshirt junior season as a co-favorite for the Heisman Trophy, coming off a strong finish to 2025 with a quarterback rating of 94.5 in his last three games.
Texas State’s Brad Jackson, a sophomore dual-threat quarterback, posted impressive statistics last season, completing over 70 percent of his passes and rushing for 17 touchdowns. In the final five games of 2025, Jackson accounted for 19 total touchdowns while completing 77 percent of his passes, showcasing his ability to impact the game with both arm and legs.
Texas State’s offensive tempo is also noteworthy, as the Bobcats ranked 21st nationally in the speed of their offensive plays last year and averaged 36.5 points per game, placing them 12th in scoring offense. Head coach GJ Kinne has demonstrated a willingness to compete with Power Five programs, highlighted by an upset over Baylor in 2023 and a near-win against Arizona State in 2024.
Together, the offensive firepower and up-tempo style of both teams suggest a potential for a high-scoring contest in this Week 1 matchup, driven by two talented quarterbacks poised to make early-season waves in their respective programs.