Inside one of Beijing’s large meat markets, refrigerators once stocked with Australian beef now stand largely empty as imports from Australia have sharply declined. The reduction has led many restaurants to substitute cheaper beef cuts from other countries, disrupting the usual supply of premium Australian Angus steak. The root cause is an unexpected trade restriction rather than natural factors like drought or consumer preference shifts.
Australia’s beef exports to China have been constrained by a safeguard mechanism embedded in the 2015 China-Australia free-trade agreement. The agreement grants Australian beef special tariff-free access to China, but imposes an annual import cap of 205,000 tonnes. This year, Australia exceeded the quota by June 18, triggering a 55 percent tariff on all subsequent shipments. This steep tariff hike has led to a rapid decline in Australian beef supply in China’s market.
Murray Davis, regional manager for Meat and Livestock Australia in China, reported a significant drop in exports following the safeguard’s activation. August volumes fell by 67 percent compared to the previous year, while prices increased by 20 to 30 percent. Despite these restrictions, demand remains, with retailers such as Sam’s Club and Costco continuing to sell Australian beef imported in July and August, totaling at least 17,363 tonnes.
The safeguard was introduced after China’s domestic cattle industry raised concerns that low-priced imported beef was pressuring local farmers by depressing market prices. In 2024, wholesale beef prices in China fell to their lowest level in over a decade, reaching 59.8 yuan per kilogram. Since the tariff imposition and reduced imports, prices have rebounded to around 71.59 yuan per kilogram, reflecting tighter supply amid a shrinking national herd.
Australian exporters are caught in a bottleneck: while Chinese demand and Australian beef supplies remain strong, importers have scaled back orders, absorbed costs, drawn down frozen stock, and increasingly sourced beef from other countries while waiting for the quota reset in January.
In response, the Australian government has explored potential quota transfers from other beef-exporting countries, including Uruguay, New Zealand, and the United States. Uruguay, which reportedly uses only a portion of its quota, has expressed tentative openness to the idea pending Chinese government approval. New Zealand and the United States, however, have not agreed to reallocate their quotas. Chinese Ministry of Commerce officials declined to comment on the matter.
Importers on the ground report adjusting their businesses under the new constraints. Huang Rui, an importer focused on Australian Angus and wagyu, noted a 30 percent drop in his usual annual imports and reported selling wagyu at a loss to maintain customer relationships. Pan Changqing, a beef trader serving retail outlets, estimated Australian beef now accounts for about a quarter of his business but observed that consumers are dining out less, further dampening demand for premium cuts.
Industry participants are preparing for the quota to renew on January 1, with a slightly increased limit of 209,000 tonnes. This figure remains below the 272,940 tonnes exported in 2025, raising expectations that the new quota may be reached even earlier next year. Some Australian beef already paid for by Chinese buyers is being stored in cold storage in Australia, while other shipments are held in bonded warehouses in China awaiting clearance once the new quota takes effect. Additionally, some cattle are being kept alive into December to be processed and shipped fresh under the refreshed tariff-free quota.
The situation illustrates the complex interplay between trade policy, supply chain logistics, and market demand that now governs Australian beef exports to China.