Florida, once a key battleground state, is drawing renewed attention from major political figures from both parties as the 2024 midterm elections approach, signaling potential shifts in voter dynamics. After Republican victories in the 2018 and 2022 elections, when the party swept statewide offices and expanded its congressional majority, Democrats had largely stepped back from the state. However, recent developments suggest a more competitive environment than in previous cycles.
In recent days, former President Donald Trump held a rally in Fort Myers, a stronghold for his supporters, where he encouraged voters to support Senator Ashley Moody and Representative Byron Donalds, who are both favored to win, with Moody seeking election after her appointment to replace Marco Rubio and Donalds running for governor. Trump’s presence is aimed at energizing Republican bases, particularly low-propensity voters.
Despite Republican advantages, polling indicates closer-than-expected contests in several races. Florida was won by Trump by 13 percentage points in 2024, and Governor Ron DeSantis secured reelection in 2022 by nearly 20 points, underscoring the state’s red-leaning status. Yet Democrats, long reluctant to invest heavily in Florida, have increased their focus. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned and fundraised for David Jolly, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in South Florida, while Senator Bernie Sanders held multiple rallies for State Representative Angie Nixon, the Democratic candidate for Senate. Nixon’s campaign has emphasized grassroots efforts to increase turnout among infrequent midterm voters. Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are also scheduled to support Nixon through virtual events.
Several congressional districts have emerged as unexpectedly competitive, partly due to a recent redistricting effort by Republican state lawmakers, which added four Republican-leaning districts. Democrats now believe they could hold two or three of those districts. In South Florida, Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz appears to have an edge over Republican Scott Singer in a district Trump won by nine points. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted this race to “lean Democratic.”
In the Tampa region, Democratic Representative Kathy Castor is contending in a district carried by Trump by 11 points against Republican Mike Beltran, and Democrat Pia Dandiy is running in a district Trump won by 10 points against Republican Casey Askar. Both are rated “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report.
Democrats have also targeted other districts previously considered safe for Republicans. The House Majority PAC, the chief Democratic super PAC, is investing in the Tampa area to support challengers such as Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general running against Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna. Additionally, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries campaigned for Elliot Rodriguez, who is challenging Republican María Elvira Salazar in Miami.
Republicans emphasize their structural advantages, including strong fundraising capabilities and the benefits of gerrymandered districts, as well as a significant registration edge—registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by approximately 1.5 million voters statewide. “We need to turn those people out,” said Evan Power, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida.
Democratic state party chair Nikki Fried criticized the impact of Trump-era policies on Floridians, citing rising costs of living as a pressing issue. The increased involvement of high-profile politicians from both parties underscores the evolving nature of Florida’s political landscape, which may see tighter races and greater voter engagement than in recent midterm elections.