In the second quarter of 2026, major U.S. oil producers are poised to report a significant surge in earnings amid elevated crude prices driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East. ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum are collectively expected to earn approximately $31 billion between April and June, a sharp rise from roughly $12 billion during the same period last year, according to estimates from FactSet. U.S. crude prices averaged around $95 per barrel in this period, up from about $66 before the escalation of hostilities linked to Iran.
Despite the financial boon for oil companies, tensions are mounting between the industry and the White House, which faces political pressure as gasoline prices surpass $4 per gallon and concerns grow about the impact on upcoming midterm elections. Former President Donald Trump, who earlier this year celebrated higher oil prices as a source of increased revenues, has since shifted his stance, urging his administration to pressure oil firms and gasoline retailers to lower prices ahead of the vote. Reports indicate that Trump has directed the Justice Department to investigate oil companies, naming Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP as potential targets.
Industry executives find themselves navigating a complex landscape. They are profiting from a conflict they did not seek, while simultaneously needing to maintain cordial relations with an administration critical of high prices. At the same time, they remain cautious about expanding production, as executives do not believe current price levels will persist beyond the conflict to justify increased drilling.
Shell’s experience illustrates some of the operational challenges facing global energy firms. The company has lost about 10% of its production due to shutdowns and damaged assets in Qatar, including its Pearl gas-to-liquids plant and a significant stake in QatarEnergy’s LNG facility. While Shell was preparing to resume output and LNG shipments, renewed escalations between the U.S. and Iran have delayed those plans. The company operated its refineries at 102% capacity during the quarter to maximize output of high-margin products such as jet fuel and diesel. Shell’s second-quarter profits more than doubled, fueled by strong market prices and robust performance in its trading division, enabling ongoing share repurchases and debt reduction.
Industry groups like the American Petroleum Institute are urging the administration to explore alternative measures to ease consumer costs, including extending waivers on the Jones Act, which restricts coastal shipping, and adjusting biofuel blending mandates to lower fuel prices. A White House spokesperson expressed optimism that military operations aimed at curbing Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz would eventually stabilize energy supplies and lead to a decrease in prices to pre-conflict levels.
Experts note that while the energy system has demonstrated resilience amid recent shocks, its capacity to absorb further disruptions is diminishing, suggesting that any additional supply disruptions could have an amplified effect on prices and market stability going forward.