The Black Sea has emerged as the deadliest shipping route worldwide this year, surpassing the Strait of Hormuz in both the number of attacks on vessels and casualties among merchant sailors. This escalation is largely due to intensified hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides targeting maritime traffic in the region.
According to data from maritime security firms and the International Maritime Organization, more than 570 vessels have been struck in the Black Sea in 2023, resulting in at least 40 fatalities. By comparison, there have been 24 confirmed deaths in the Strait of Hormuz during the same period. Attacks on ships average over four per day in recent months, reflecting a sharp rise in hostilities. The Black Sea is a crucial corridor for global grain exports and Russian oil, amplifying the strategic importance of the area.
The conflict’s maritime dimension began shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The Black Sea was heavily mined, and despite an initially successful UN and Turkey-brokered grain export deal, violence resumed following the collapse of the agreement in 2023. Both Moscow and Kyiv have engaged in attacks targeting ports, vessels, and maritime infrastructure, while interference with ships’ satellite navigation systems has also become common.
The intensified wave of assaults this summer has been partly driven by Ukraine’s drone campaign focused on disrupting Russian shipping, particularly diesel supplies from Crimea. Ukrainian forces have reportedly struck more than 300 Russian vessels over 11 weeks, targeting not only military and sanctioned tankers but also grain carriers. In response, Russia has escalated attacks on ships visiting Ukrainian ports; it accounted for approximately 90 percent of strikes on shipping over the last 45 days.
The consequences are evident in port activity. Greater Odessa’s port, once accommodating about 400 ships monthly, saw fewer than 10 vessels last month, according to Ukraine’s largest private operator TIS. Ukraine has attempted to divert grain shipments through smaller Danube ports, but continued attacks have made this increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, Russia has rerouted grain exports via longer and more expensive routes through the Baltic Sea and Russia’s Far East.
The risks to crews have intensified significantly. Analysts note that Ukraine has shifted tactics, now targeting critical areas on ships, such as bridges and accommodation blocks, which increases the likelihood of casualties. This contributes to a pervasive sense of danger among seafarers. Oleg Grygoriuk, chair of Ukraine’s Marine Transport Workers’ Trade Union, described calling at Ukrainian ports as “near suicidal,” highlighting the persistent threat to life faced by crews.
The increased danger has prompted the Joint War Committee, which classifies war risk insurance zones, to expand the highest threat level to nearly the entire Black Sea, excluding only Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish territorial waters. Even these areas are beginning to experience attacks, leading some shipping companies to reconsider trade routes near the Sulina anchorage by the Danube and along the Bulgarian coast. War insurance premiums for vessels in the Black Sea have risen to nearly 15 percent of a ship’s hull value, nearly double the rates for ships in the Gulf region. This has led to the use of older vessels that are cheaper to insure but may pose greater safety risks.
The broader economic impact of the conflict is significant. Ukrainian agricultural exports by sea fell to 1.4 million tonnes in August, roughly 75 percent below pre-war levels, according to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry. Ukrainian officials warn that continued disruptions threaten next year’s planting season, as reduced export revenue undermines farmers’ ability to purchase fuel, seed, and fertilizer. This disruption has wide-ranging consequences beyond Ukraine and Russia, affecting global food supply chains reliant on grain shipments from the Black Sea corridor.
As attacks escalate and risks mount, the Black Sea stands as a perilous space for maritime commerce, presenting challenges for shipping companies, crews, and the international trade system at large.