Blunder in, abandon allies and court a dictator: it’s the Trump doctrine, now playing out in Myanmar

By the Editorial Team · Monday, October 19, 2026

The U.S. government has initiated direct talks with Myanmar’s military leaders, reversing previous efforts to isolate the junta responsible for severe human rights abuses and democratic collapse. This move signals a strategic pivot toward securing access to Myanmar’s rare earth minerals, raising concerns about legitimizing the military regime amid ongoing violence and humanitarian crises.

In a marked shift in U.S. policy, the administration has begun engaging directly with Myanmar’s military regime, reversing nearly a decade of unified Western efforts aimed at isolating the junta responsible for widespread human rights abuses and the collapse of democracy in the country.

Since the 2021 military coup that ousted elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy party, Myanmar has descended into violent conflict. The military’s takeover sparked a multifaceted civil war involving resistance groups and ethnic militias, resulting in an estimated 100,000 deaths and forcing around 5 million people to flee their homes. The United Nations estimates that 16 million people within Myanmar now require urgent humanitarian aid, making it one of the world’s most acute human-made crises.

Earlier this year, Myanmar’s military, led by General Min Aung Hlaing—who was previously identified by U.S. lawmakers as a key figure responsible for genocide against the Rohingya population—held elections widely regarded as illegitimate. Min Aung Hlaing subsequently assumed the presidency. Notably, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, once a vocal advocate for prosecuting Myanmar’s military leaders over their human rights violations, has signaled a willingness to engage with Min Aung Hlaing’s regime as a potential ally.

This policy reversal has surprised many Western nations, none of which appear to have been informed ahead of the U.S. move to open dialogue with Myanmar’s generals. The possibility of lifting sanctions is reportedly under consideration. The shift aligns with a broader strategic interest in Myanmar’s abundant rare earth minerals, crucial for advanced military technologies and manufacturing applications. China currently dominates the global rare earth market and imports roughly $3.6 billion worth of these minerals from Myanmar annually, often from mines controlled by the military regime.

Supporting this change in approach, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research Michael Vance recently traveled to Naypyidaw, Myanmar’s capital. While officially on a mission to secure the release of a U.S. citizen, Vance’s visit also included confidential talks with military leaders, signaling a tacit acceptance of the junta’s authority rather than pressure to restore democracy or end ongoing hostilities.

The U.S. engagement complements emerging regional diplomatic overtures toward Myanmar’s military authorities. Min Aung Hlaing visited Malaysia this month, where Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim suggested the possibility of Myanmar’s reintegration into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). There are also indications that Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines are considering normalizing ties with the junta.

Meanwhile, the military’s grip on power has strengthened militarily, aided by the use of advanced drone technology reportedly supplied by Russia and China, and the conscription of tens of thousands of young men. This has enabled the junta to reclaim territory from opposition forces, although civilian casualties remain alarmingly high. Just last month, an airstrike on a market in a rebel-controlled area killed more than 50 people.

While some Western countries, including Britain, Canada, Australia, and the European Union, maintain sanctions and continue to support Myanmar’s pro-democracy groups, there are concerns about dwindling international aid. The UK, for example, recently reduced its annual aid allocation to Myanmar from £66 million to £55 million. Overall, only half of the nearly $890 million requested by the UN for humanitarian efforts in Myanmar this year has been funded.

Critics argue that greater direct engagement with Myanmar’s resistance and pro-democracy actors is necessary, warning that prioritizing resource access and rapprochement with authoritarian regimes risks legitimizing ongoing atrocities. The current U.S. policy shift reflects a controversial balance between strategic interests and human rights priorities in a country facing profound ongoing turmoil.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.