Boeing forecasts a substantial expansion of the global commercial aircraft fleet by 2045, projecting a rise from the current 28,000 planes to approximately 50,000. The majority of these—over 90 percent—are expected to be newer, more fuel-efficient models that consume about 20 percent less fuel than existing aircraft. This projection was outlined ahead of the upcoming Farnborough Air Show in Britain.

The US manufacturer anticipates that nearly 44,000 new airplanes will need to be produced over the next two decades to satisfy growing demand driven by economic growth and expanded travel routes, as well as to replace aging aircraft. Currently, new-generation aircraft constitute about 32 percent of the global fleet, and by 2045 that figure is projected to rise to 92 percent.

Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst noted that 2026 has not progressed as strongly as expected from an airline industry perspective, citing significant shifts in passenger travel patterns. Hulst pointed to airlines rerouting traffic away from the Middle East conflict zone to hubs in Europe, Asia, and, in some cases, North America. Despite this, he emphasized that the fundamental demand for air travel remains intact, although 2026 travel volumes are now expected to be roughly half or less than initial forecasts suggested.

The company projects an average annual passenger traffic growth rate of 4 percent alongside global economic growth of 2.5 percent between 2026 and 2045. However, Boeing continues to face challenges related to supply chain disruptions that have persisted since the COVID-19 pandemic. The company expects production shortfalls to extend through the late 2020s for single-aisle aircraft and into the early 2030s for widebody models.

In parallel, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced it would restore Boeing’s authority to issue airworthiness certificates for all 737 MAX and 787 aircraft starting next week. This development marks a key milestone for Boeing as it accelerates production of these models. The FAA’s decision follows extensive data and safety reviews demonstrating consistent production quality under Boeing’s control, signaling renewed confidence in the company’s manufacturing oversight.

Boeing’s certification authority for 737 MAX planes was revoked in 2019 after the fatal Ethiopia crash, and for 787 aircraft in 2022 due to production quality concerns. Since September, Boeing had been allowed to issue certificates on an alternating weekly basis with the FAA. The agency said ongoing inspections, audits, and monitoring of Boeing’s production processes would continue.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford indicated improvements at Boeing, describing a more collaborative regulatory approach without lowering compliance standards. The FAA’s move comes as Boeing works to increase its 737 MAX monthly production limit, which was raised last year to 42 planes from a prior cap of 38 following a mid-air incident involving a MAX 9 aircraft in early 2024.