Boeing forecasts that by 2045 the global commercial aircraft fleet will grow to approximately 50,000 planes, with more than 90 percent consisting of advanced “new-generation” models that offer significantly improved fuel efficiency. This projection, released ahead of next week’s Farnborough Air Show in the United Kingdom, marks a substantial increase from today’s fleet of 28,000 aircraft, driven by ongoing economic expansion and the emergence of new air travel routes worldwide.

According to Boeing’s latest outlook, meeting this demand will require the manufacturing of nearly 44,000 new airplanes over the next two decades to both accommodate growth and replace aging aircraft. The company estimates that approximately 92 percent of the 2045 fleet will incorporate environmental enhancements, including fuel savings of around 20 percent compared to earlier models. Currently, new-generation planes constitute about 32 percent of the global fleet.

Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst noted that while the airline industry has faced a slower than anticipated commercial performance in 2026, underlying demand fundamentals remain robust. However, Hulst acknowledged that current air travel demand this year is about half or less of what was initially expected. He cited the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a significant factor prompting airlines and passengers to reroute through hubs in Europe, Asia, or North America, disrupting traditional traffic flows.

The company projects a steady passenger traffic growth averaging 4 percent annually through 2045, alongside global economic growth of approximately 2.5 percent. Boeing’s forecast also highlights continuing challenges around supply chain disruptions, which have persisted since the COVID-19 pandemic. These issues have created a production shortfall, particularly for single-aisle aircraft expected to normalize only by the late 2020s, while for widebody jets, the deficit could extend into the early 2030s.

In a related development, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced it will allow Boeing to resume issuing airworthiness certificates for all 737 MAX and 787 aircraft starting next week. This decision represents a key milestone for the company, which has worked to restore confidence in its production processes following safety and quality concerns.

The FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to certify individual 737 MAX planes in 2019 after a second fatal crash involving the model in Ethiopia and suspended similar certification rights for 787 aircraft in 2022 due to production quality issues. Since September 2025, Boeing had been permitted to issue these certificates on alternating weeks with the FAA. The agency stated its confidence in Boeing’s current ability to uphold consistent production quality under ongoing FAA oversight, emphasizing continued inspections and monitoring.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford described the relationship with Boeing as increasingly collaborative, focusing on maintaining stringent regulatory standards without compromising safety. The FAA’s decision to restore full certification privileges coincides with Boeing’s efforts to increase 737 MAX production, following a recent raise of the manufacturer’s monthly output cap to 42 aircraft.

Boeing reaffirmed its commitment to producing safe, high-quality airplanes in compliance with all certification requirements under the FAA’s supervision as it prepares to meet the projected growth in global air travel demand over the coming decades.