A recent set of surveys reveals significant concern among both Major League Baseball players and fans over the possibility of a lockout ahead of the 2027 season. Conducted by The Athletic between February and May, the polls included input from 101 anonymous players across 23 teams and nearly 8,500 fans.

Among players, 80 of the 101 respondents expressed confidence that a lockout would occur this offseason. One American League pitcher characterized the situation as unavoidable, suggesting that Commissioner Rob Manfred’s expected retirement in January 2029 may play a role, with Manfred aiming to implement a salary cap as one of his final objectives. Nineteen players said they were uncertain, while only two expected no lockout.

Fan sentiment mirrored the players’ anticipation, with 77.7 percent of the nearly 8,500 respondents predicting that games would be lost due to a lockout. Nearly 22 percent indicated that any missed games could deter them from following baseball for a significant period, and another third said their engagement would depend on the extent of cancellations.

Players expressed some variation in outlooks. A National League West player indicated optimism that the full 162-game schedule would be played, but acknowledged that spring training could be disrupted.

The underlying disputes center on financial structures in the sport. Major League Baseball’s initial proposal includes instituting a hard salary cap set at $245.3 million alongside a minimum payroll floor of $171.2 million. According to sources, players strongly oppose such a hard cap system. Meanwhile, the fan survey showed that 57.9 percent support some form of cap-and-floor system, with preferences split between a soft cap and floor (44.4 percent) and a hard cap and floor (39.7 percent). Approximately 39 percent of fans favored maintaining the current market system without such restrictions.

The players’ union countered with a proposal to raise the existing luxury tax thresholds and introduce a "competitive integrity tax" targeting clubs that fail to meet minimum payroll requirements. Fans appear to associate salary disparities with issues of competitive balance; 57.7 percent rated MLB’s competitive balance as worse than that of the NBA, NFL, or NHL, leagues which operate under salary caps.

The dominant spending disparity became evident last season when the Los Angeles Dodgers, with the league’s highest payroll, clinched consecutive World Series titles—the first team to do so since the Yankees from 1998 to 2000. Many fans expressed skepticism about competitive parity in baseball compared to other sports.

Regarding responsibility for spending disparities, nearly 60 percent of fans held owners who spend too little accountable, while only 15.6 percent blamed owners who invest heavily in payrolls.

As the current collective bargaining agreement approaches expiration on December 1, the debate over MLB’s financial and labor future intensifies. If games are missed due to a lockout, fans predominantly place the blame on ownership, with 45.3 percent holding owners responsible, 21.9 percent blaming players, and about 30 percent attributing fault to both parties equally. This division underscores the complexity of the negotiations ahead.