Botswana, the world’s second-largest diamond producer after Russia, is facing significant challenges amid a global slump in diamond sales. The diamond mining sector, which supports much of the country's population of 2.6 million directly or indirectly, is experiencing a downturn that is affecting both economic growth and employment.

The Orapa mine, located on the edge of the Kalahari Desert, remains the world’s largest diamond mine by surface area. Discovered in 1967, just a year after Botswana gained independence from Britain, the mine has been operated by Debswana—a joint venture between the Botswana government and De Beers—since 1971. Orapa has played a pivotal role in transforming Botswana from one of the poorest nations into a middle-income country with a universal public health system and substantial investment in education.

Kesegofetse Bumo-Motswaiso, a mining engineer at Orapa, describes her role as translating long-term plans into short-term operational decisions, including where to drill and extract kimberlite rock containing diamonds. While the quantity of diamonds extracted per truckload is small compared to the volume of mined rock, the value is substantial, contributing significantly to Botswana’s GDP and government revenues. The income derived from mining funds public services and has supported a relatively high standard of living.

However, the industry is currently struggling. Over the past months, Debswana has seen about 1,000 employees, roughly a fifth of its workforce, take voluntary redundancy. A smaller mine nearby, Letlhakane, has been closed. Even Orapa’s general manager, Mogakolodi Maoketsa, acknowledges the situation as “dire,” citing sharply reduced revenue levels. Despite ongoing operations at Orapa, which is licensed to run until 2054, the outlook is challenging. The company is trialing new technology such as an advanced X-ray system to improve diamond detection, though geological assessments suggest the mine is unlikely to yield large “mega stones” going forward.

This downturn has broader economic implications for Botswana, where diamonds account for about a quarter of GDP and half of government revenues through royalties, taxes, and joint venture profits. The government's 15 percent stake in De Beers also generates income from operations worldwide, but total revenues for De Beers have dropped from $6.62 billion in 2022 to $3.49 billion globally.

Botswana’s leadership has acknowledged the need to diversify its economy. In the wake of public dissatisfaction, the center-right Botswana Democratic Party, which had governed since independence, was replaced in 2024 by a coalition led by President Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change, a left-leaning alliance. Boko has declared a public health emergency amid medicine shortages and has initiated efforts such as opening a sovereign wealth fund and exploring new mineral resources in partnership with Oman. Plans are also underway to develop tourism and technology sectors as alternatives to diamond dependence.

Industry observers point to past strategic decisions that have affected the diamond sector’s performance. One notable example is De Beers’ sale of the Karowe mine in 2009 to Canadian company Lucara, which has since profited from discoveries of large diamonds there. De Beers representatives indicate that such decisions reflect the knowledge available at the time and portfolio management priorities.

For now, workers like Bumo-Motswaiso are cautiously optimistic but aware that prolonged difficulties could force them to seek employment outside diamond mining. She expresses hope that future generations might build on the benefits diamonds have brought while expanding into other industries such as artificial intelligence.

Overall, while Botswana’s diamond industry remains a cornerstone of the economy, its current struggles highlight the vulnerability of relying heavily on a single natural resource and the urgency of economic diversification.