Several countries have announced they will boycott the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest, which is set to take place in Vienna. Spain, Iceland, Ireland, Slovenia, and the Netherlands have declared they will not participate in response to Israel’s inclusion in the competition. Their withdrawal contributes to a reduced field of 35 countries, marking the lowest number of participants since the contest introduced semi-finals in 2004.
The ongoing ban on Russia and Belarus, imposed due to the war in Ukraine, also affects this year’s contest lineup. The absence of several countries not only opens the door for other nations to advance but could also significantly influence voting outcomes.
An analysis of voting patterns from the past decade reveals that the boycotting countries tend to award higher average points to certain participants. For instance, the United Kingdom typically receives an average of 2.16 points from each competing country but averages 2.66 points from the five boycotting nations. This could negatively impact the UK’s final score.
Other countries expected to be disadvantaged by the boycott include Belgium, Poland, and Sweden, each of which generally receives approximately two more points on average from the boycotting nations. Conversely, nations such as Greece, Ukraine, and Albania often receive fewer votes from these countries and may stand to benefit from their absence. While the point differences per country may appear small, the cumulative impact across all abstaining nations could result in swings of up to ten points for some entrants.
Favorites to win the contest, according to cryptocurrency-based betting platform Polymarket, include Finland, Denmark, Greece, and Australia. However, the boycott among mostly Western European countries—Slovenia being the exception—may create challenges for this cluster, as Finland, Denmark, and Australia have previously performed well with voters from the boycotting nations.
Historical voting behavior demonstrates a consistent pattern of regional alliances, often cited as "voting blocs." For example, Greece and Cyprus frequently award each other the maximum 12 points, while Norway and Sweden regularly exchange high scores. These alliances reflect shared languages, musical tastes, and cultural affinities, as confirmed by both public votes and jury results.
Israel’s inclusion has also sparked controversy, with some alleging that Moroccanoil, an Israeli beauty brand and the contest’s primary sponsor since 2020, influenced the European Broadcasting Union’s (EBU) decision to approve Israel’s participation. The EBU has denied any such influence.
Israel, a four-time Eurovision winner including a recent victory in 2018 with Netta’s "Toy," consistently performs strongly in the public vote, having finished first in 2025 and second in 2024.
The United Kingdom continues to struggle in the competition, with only one entry avoiding the bottom two from 2015 to 2021. Despite Sam Ryder’s second-place finish in 2022, the UK remains unlikely to break a nearly 30-year winless streak at next year’s contest. The UK’s 2026 entry, synth-pop artist Look Mum No Computer, presents a unique appeal, including parts performed in German, but analysts suggest this alone may not suffice to improve Britain’s fortunes.