President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions, particularly his trade wars and military actions against Iran, are increasingly viewed as significant factors contributing to economic challenges ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. Analysts and recent studies suggest these policies have played a central role in driving inflation and eroding public support for the Republican Party.

Unlike past midterms where foreign affairs had minimal impact on voter sentiment, this election cycle presents a different landscape. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 34 percent, the lowest for a sitting president at this point since Harry S. Truman’s 1946 midterms, when Republicans gained control of both houses of Congress. Experts argue that Trump’s expansion of tariffs and military involvement in Iran have exacerbated inflationary pressures, a key concern for voters nationwide.

The administration’s tariff policies have led to a substantial increase in the effective tariff rate. According to estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, tariffs rose from 2.3 percent in early 2025 to 7.1 percent by August. The Yale Budget Lab places the current effective tariff rate even higher, at 11 percent, with projections pointing toward further increases. While Trump maintains that foreign countries bear the cost of tariffs, research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that nearly 90 percent of tariffs are ultimately passed on to U.S. consumers through higher prices. Their study found that a one percentage point increase in tariffs leads to roughly a 0.25 percent increase in consumer goods prices within a year.

Energy prices have also surged amid the ongoing conflict with Iran, intensifying inflation. Despite increased oil output in the Middle East, ongoing Iranian hostilities have raised extraction and transport costs. Benchmark Brent crude recently surpassed $116 per barrel, marking a more than 60 percent rise since the conflict began, while diesel prices in the U.S. have climbed nearly 70 percent. Economist Mark Zandi estimates the Iran conflict has cost the average American household approximately $1,100. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office attributes over one-third of this year's inflation increase to the war.

In response to persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve has continued raising interest rates, with the average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rising from just under 6 percent prior to the Iran conflict to 7.3 percent recently. This has contributed to what many Americans describe as an affordability crisis. A recent poll found that 75 percent of respondents view the current economic situation negatively, compared to 34 percent before the 2018 midterms. The same survey shows Democrats holding a 40-33 percent edge in economic trust among voters.

In an effort to alleviate rising fuel costs, Trump brokered a deal to purchase diesel from Russia. However, observers suggest this move is unlikely to significantly reduce prices or improve his standing with voters, particularly as public sympathy remains strongly aligned with Ukraine rather than Russia. Polling evidence underscores this divide, showing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holding higher approval ratings than Trump among American voters. Trump’s frequent criticisms of Zelensky may further undermine his appeal.

While the Iran conflict has yet to match the length or casualties of past wars like Vietnam, its impact on global energy markets has produced substantial economic disruptions. Combined with ongoing trade tensions, experts warn these factors will continue to affect the economy, especially if Trump pursues intensified military actions post-election.

As Republicans face potential losses in the midterms, analysts suggest the party may pay a substantial political price for the current foreign policy approach. Some hope that remaining Republican lawmakers will collaborate with Democrats to address and moderate what many view as detrimental aspects of the administration’s foreign policy stance.