Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, is poised to challenge incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a presidential runoff later this month, following a stronger-than-expected performance in October’s first-round vote. The election results have also bolstered right-wing forces across the country, as the Liberal Party (PL), led by the Bolsonaro family, secured significant gains in both houses of Congress.
The elder Jair Bolsonaro, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for his role in planning a violent coup attempt after losing the 2022 election to Lula. He is under house arrest for health reasons but barred from political activity. His allies argue that he has been subjected to political persecution.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has made the pursuit of amnesty for his father and others convicted in connection with the January 8, 2023, attacks on government buildings in Brasília a central issue. These riots, carried out by supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, called for a military takeover, alleging without substantiation that the election had been stolen. Prosecutors describe the events as part of a broader conspiracy involving former ministers and military personnel, including plans to assassinate Lula.
The Liberal Party, which nearly doubled its Senate seats from 15 to 28—the largest Senate bench since the 1988 constitution—and increased its presence in the lower house to 121 out of 513 seats, is well-positioned to advance this agenda. The party’s growing strength in Congress has raised the possibility of legislative moves to grant amnesty to the elder Bolsonaro and others branded as “political prisoners” by supporters. There is also a push within right-wing circles to impeach Supreme Court justices who ordered Bolsonaro’s imprisonment, notably Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the coup-related cases.
However, political analysts caution that Flávio Bolsonaro may approach these objectives with caution to avoid triggering a constitutional crisis, given the Supreme Court’s influence and probable resistance to any amnesty proposals. Some experts suggest that the younger Bolsonaro may delay aggressive actions until his government can appoint new justices more sympathetic to his cause, as the next president will have the opportunity to fill up to four Supreme Court vacancies.
The Bolsonaro family’s resurgence coincides with a broader right-wing wave in Latin America, reflecting a growing conservative shift in the region. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has garnered support not just for himself but also for other family members who secured federal seats, further solidifying the family’s political hold.
Despite familial scandals and controversies, including disputes involving Jair Bolsonaro’s third wife Michelle Bolsonaro, many voters appear to associate Flávio Bolsonaro with his father’s political legacy. Observers suggest the elder Bolsonaro remains the central figure in the movement popularly known as "bolsonarismo," with supporters projecting their trust in the father onto the son.
If Flávio Bolsonaro succeeds in winning the runoff, he is expected to pursue broad changes that could reshape Brazil’s political landscape, including a potential weakening of judicial oversight and efforts to reverse convictions against family members involved in corruption and election interference allegations. Meanwhile, critics warn that such a shift raises concerns about Brazil’s democratic institutions, given the country’s historical experiences with authoritarian regimes.
For now, the election outcome appears to reflect a complex interplay of public dissatisfaction with the current government, judicial activism, and a desire among segments of the electorate to restore the Bolsonaro family as a dominant political force. The runoff scheduled for later this month will decide whether this resurgence culminates in the family’s return to executive power.