Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is poised to secure his party’s presidential nomination this weekend as he prepares to challenge incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the October election. The Liberal Party is expected to confirm Flávio Bolsonaro as its candidate at a convention scheduled for Saturday in São Paulo.

At 45, Flávio Bolsonaro faces several campaign hurdles, including difficulty in securing a running mate and limited support from centrist political groups that had backed his father during his presidency. Unlike Jair Bolsonaro, who enjoyed broad alliances, Flávio Bolsonaro has struggled to unite key factions within Brazil’s fragmented political landscape. Efforts to recruit a high-profile female vice-presidential candidate, such as former Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina, have so far been unsuccessful. Cristina's Popular Party, a major force in Congress and an important ally during Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, has surprisingly distanced itself from Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign by choosing to field its own candidate.

The senator’s campaign has also been hampered by internal family tensions. His stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro, who is popular among evangelical voters—a crucial segment of the Bolsonaro base—has publicly criticized him. The dispute escalated after she released a video accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of disrespect during a phone conversation. The two have since exchanged apologies via video statements, signaling a possible reconciliation as the campaign officially launches.

In addition to interpersonal and political challenges, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has been overshadowed by allegations that have eroded his support. In May, he disclosed having sought substantial funding from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father’s life, a revelation that surprised and unsettled many allies. His subsequent visit to the United States, where he sought backing from members of the Trump administration, coincided with the imposition of steep U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports, which some voters and business leaders have linked to his efforts.

Further complicating his bid, Flávio Bolsonaro has amplified doubts about the integrity of Brazil’s electronic voting system, reiterating debunked claims previously rejected by the Supreme Court. These allegations contributed to disqualifying his father from political participation.

Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for his role in an attempted coup and remains under house arrest, spending time with his wife at home.

Meanwhile, Lula’s Workers’ Party is preparing to formalize the 80-year-old president’s bid for reelection at its own convention on August 2, also in São Paulo, underscoring the city’s importance as a battleground in the forthcoming presidential race. Political analysts suggest that Flávio Bolsonaro’s convention may mark a key moment for the candidate to articulate his platform after a period of defensive campaigning amid mounting obstacles.