Brazil’s right embraces election betting odds amid growing polls scepticism

By the Editorial Team · Sunday, October 18, 2026

Brazilian right-wing supporters are increasingly using the banned prediction market Polymarket to gauge odds for the upcoming presidential runoff between Flavio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The platform’s popularity highlights growing distrust in traditional polls and challenges authorities’ efforts to enforce the ban ahead of the October 25 election.

Despite a government ban, Brazil’s right-wing figures have increasingly turned to the prediction market Polymarket as a reference point for the country’s upcoming presidential runoff, reflecting growing skepticism toward traditional opinion polls. The runoff, scheduled for October 25, will see right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro face incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Polymarket, a US-based prediction platform that allows users to trade shares linked to real-world events, has seen significant activity tied to Brazil’s election. The site, banned in Brazil since April under Lula’s administration over concerns that it could exacerbate household debt, remains accessible through virtual private networks (VPNs). Despite the ban, users have traded roughly $185 million in contracts relating to the presidential outcome.

Right-wing supporters have embraced Polymarket’s odds, which currently show a 77% probability of Flavio Bolsonaro winning the presidency. Ahead of the first round, the platform assigned Bolsonaro’s campaign a 63% chance of victory, a figure that diverged from pre-election opinion polls placing Lula ahead. Bolsonaro ultimately finished just ahead of Lula by about two percentage points in that round, intensifying debate over the reliability of conventional polling methods.

Social media posts circulating among Bolsonaro’s supporters highlight Polymarket charts with statements such as “Flavio Bolsonaro has skyrocketed on Polymarket” and “Lula has lost,” suggesting a belief that the platform offers a more accurate reflection of voter sentiment. However, experts caution against equating prediction market prices with voter intention. Political scientist Carolina Botelho explained that unlike polls, which capture a snapshot of the electorate at a given moment, prediction markets record financial transactions and expectations, allowing repeated bets that may distort the signal they send.

Brazil’s finance ministry has acknowledged the difficulty in enforcing the ban and is monitoring the situation closely, leaving open the possibility of further regulatory action. Polymarket itself has emphasized that its contracts do not constitute official projections or endorsements of any candidate.

While Polymarket remains popular among certain voter segments as a perceived “litmus test,” the division over its legitimacy underscores broader uncertainty and polarization surrounding Brazil’s electoral environment as the country heads into a decisive runoff.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.