A new report from a University of Calgary economist warns that Alberta’s potential separation from Canada would trigger far greater economic challenges than those experienced by Britain following Brexit. Trevor Tombe, who authored the analysis for the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, released his findings Tuesday amid an ongoing provincial debate over separation. Alberta voters are scheduled to decide on Oct. 19 whether to remain in Canada or initiate the legal groundwork for a second, binding referendum on independence.
The report emphasizes Alberta’s deep economic integration with the rest of Canada and international markets, highlighting the province’s reliance on interprovincial and global trade. According to Tombe, the uncertainty and economic disruption following Brexit—which led to a 12 to 18 percent decline in investment in the United Kingdom—pale in comparison to the consequences Alberta would face if it pursued secession. “Brexit would be a cakewalk compared to what Alberta separation would involve,” he said.
Alberta’s economy is highly trade-dependent, with nearly one in three workers—approximately 900,000 people—engaged in sectors significantly exposed to trade with other provinces and countries. Trade-related employment extends well beyond Alberta’s oil and gas industry, encompassing manufacturing, finance, real estate, professional services, tourism, and agriculture. Excluding oil and gas, international exports account for roughly 15 percent of total provincial income. Interprovincial trade contributes about $78 billion to Alberta’s economy annually, equating to 16 cents of every dollar earned. Overall, exports represent nearly 39 percent of Alberta’s income, close to $180 billion.
Supporters of separation have argued that Alberta would benefit fiscally by retaining approximately $20 billion in annual federal equalization tax payments that currently flow to other provinces. However, Tombe’s report underscores that secession would shrink Alberta’s economy, lowering tax revenues while increasing the costs of operating a standalone government. This fiscal gap, the report states, would likely require either substantial tax hikes, major cuts to public services, or a combination of both.
Calgary Chamber of Commerce CEO Deborah Yedlin said the province’s longstanding economic advantages would disappear swiftly after separation. Yedlin noted that multinational investors have multiple options for long-term investment, making it critical for Alberta to prove it remains a stable and attractive environment amid ongoing political uncertainties.
The report’s release coincided with an open letter signed by 11 prominent Alberta business leaders—including AltaGas CEO Vern Yu, ATCO Ltd. CEO Nancy Southern, AltaLink president Paul Lee, and Keyera CEO Dean Setoguchi—urging voters to reject separation.
This analysis aligns with other recent studies highlighting the economic risks of Alberta leaving Canada. Earlier in September, the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy published a comprehensive report, commissioned by Premier Danielle Smith’s government, forecasting negative outcomes such as lower wages, GDP contraction, and increased provincial debt resulting from independence.
Similarly, reports from the C.D. Howe Institute and the Canada West Foundation emphasize the significant uncertainties and potential costs of secession, while separatist groups such as the Alberta Transition Council offer more optimistic projections. The ATC’s recent report, authored by independence advocate Keith Wilson and retired executive Dennis Kalma, presents a more favorable assessment, though it has kept contributors’ identities confidential due to professional and personal considerations.
As Alberta approaches the October vote, economic analyses continue to underscore the complex and uncertain impact that secession would have on the province’s future.