The United Kingdom is reportedly considering the expulsion of up to 27 Israeli diplomats following a potential decision by Israel to close the British consulate in east Jerusalem. The consulate’s closure is a response to Britain’s recent restrictions on trade involving goods from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, alongside planned sanctions against companies supporting the expansion of such settlements.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has indicated the closure as a possible countermeasure to the UK’s policies. However, some Israeli officials have suggested that while the threat to shutter the consulate remains on the table, alternative responses may be pursued. Among these is the possibility of expelling British personnel from Ramallah, where British troops primarily engage in training Palestinian security forces. This action, viewed as less severe than closing the consulate, could lead Britain to reconsider any harsh diplomatic reprisals.

British government sources acknowledge the tense atmosphere surrounding the issue, with one senior official describing current relations with Israel as the “worst since 1948.” Jonathan Powell, the UK national security adviser, recently visited Jerusalem to discuss the diplomatic impasse. Reports indicate Powell opposed the trade restrictions, concerned they might strengthen Netanyahu’s position in the upcoming Israeli elections scheduled for October 27. Some sources familiar with UK-Israel relations have speculated that leaks from Israel’s Likud-controlled foreign ministry could be politically motivated, aiming to boost Netanyahu’s standing ahead of the elections by publicly escalating tensions with Britain.

Legal experts have weighed in on the dispute, emphasizing the consulate’s unique status. Dominic Grieve, a former attorney-general, stated that as the occupying power, Israel lacks the legal authority to demand the closure of the UK consulate-general, which operates independently of the Israeli government. Grieve described any attempt to shutter the facility as a serious violation of international law.

Diplomatic discussions between the British and Israeli foreign ministries are ongoing, with officials maintaining active communication amid the escalating dispute. The UK is considering the relocation of its diplomatic presence to Ramallah if the consulate is closed, although Israel has also threatened to revoke the credentials of Dutch diplomats there in response to a similar trade ban imposed by the Netherlands. The need for Israeli accreditation remains a contentious issue given its military control over the West Bank, east Jerusalem, and Gaza.

Notably, there have been no indications from Israel of intentions to close the British embassy in Tel Aviv. Critics argue this reveals Israel’s efforts to reinforce sovereignty claims over east Jerusalem, a city Palestinians envision as the capital of their future state. The evolving diplomatic tensions underscore the complex and deeply sensitive nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly as the upcoming Israeli elections approach.