Maritime trade remains a critical component of the global economy, carrying approximately 80% of goods and 90% of oil worldwide. In addition, undersea fiber-optic cables support the majority of global internet traffic. Recent disruptions to shipping routes and infrastructure have underscored the severe economic consequences such interruptions can cause, including supply shortages, production halts, and inflationary pressures.

The United Kingdom, a nation heavily dependent on maritime trade for imports, energy, telecommunications, and transportation, faces significant vulnerability to such disruptions. The Strait of Dover ranks among the world’s most vital shipping lanes, with Britain’s 51 major ports handling over a million tonnes of cargo annually. London also serves as a leading global center for maritime insurance, placing the UK squarely in the path of evolving maritime security challenges.

In 2023, shipping through the Suez Canal was drastically reduced following attacks by Houthi forces on vessels in the Red Sea, with transit volumes falling by half and not yet recovering. The previous year, Russia imposed a blockade on Ukrainian grain exports in the Black Sea, a blockade which has intensified in 2024 despite international efforts to safeguard shipments. Cargo volumes in Ukrainian Black Sea ports reportedly declined by 92% in August, according to industry sources. Piracy has seen a resurgence near the Horn of Africa after years of relative suppression, and sabotage of undersea infrastructure has increased, including attacks on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in 2022 and the C-Lion fiber-optic cable in the Baltic Sea earlier this year. Investigations have also identified heightened suspicious activity near subsea cables in UK waters.

Experts attribute the rise in maritime threats to two primary factors. First, maritime blockades and attacks represent a cost-effective method for states to exert political and economic pressure. Historical naval strategy recognizes that even small states can disrupt key trade routes using limited resources such as mines or submarines. Second, there appears to be diminished international resolve to enforce the legal frameworks that traditionally safeguard freedom of navigation, such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

UNCLOS, adopted in 1982, established territorial and economic boundaries for coastal states and enshrined the principle of free passage through international waters. However, geopolitical tensions are increasingly challenging this framework. In the Middle East, proposals by both Iran and the United States to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz would deviate from UNCLOS provisions. Meanwhile, in the Arctic, reports indicate Russia is contemplating withdrawal from the treaty amid competition for mineral resources and emerging trade routes driven by climate change. Similar disputes over territorial and economic rights persist in the South and East China Seas, involving China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

The UK government has acknowledged the economic and security risks posed by these developments. A parliamentary business and trade committee report released last year issued 25 recommendations aimed at strengthening maritime security and safeguarding supply chains, particularly highlighting the importance of just-in-time logistics and transatlantic subsea cables. However, progress on implementing these measures has been gradual.

Observers suggest that the UK could benefit from adopting a comprehensive economic security strategy akin to those developed by the United States, European Union, and Japan—nations that have integrated concerns such as investment, industrial policy, technology, critical minerals, and maritime security into a unified policy framework.

While the era when Britain dominated global maritime trade has ended, experts warn that without a concerted response to evolving maritime risks, the UK's economy may face heightened exposure to future disruptions.