Prime Minister Andy Burnham has agreed to above-inflation pay increases for train drivers on the London to Manchester route to prevent planned rail strikes, marking his first major public sector wage deal since taking office. The agreement covers drivers employed by Avanti West Coast, the primary operator on the busy route that also serves Birmingham, Manchester, and Glasgow.

Leaked union communications reveal that Burnham approved a 3.6 percent pay rise for members of the Aslef drivers’ union, whose starting salaries are around £70,000. The deal also includes enhanced conditions such as time-and-a-half pay rates for Sunday work and bonuses of up to £720 for working a fifth day in a week. These measures come as part of efforts to mitigate service disruptions that have already led to significant service reductions over the summer due to driver rest-day work refusals.

The pay agreement has drawn mixed reactions. The government framed the settlement as a pragmatic step to resolve an ongoing dispute, improve passenger services, and save significant revenue losses that would have resulted from strike action. Officials also emphasized the deal’s importance in maintaining reliable transport links to Manchester, where Burnham has established his “No 10 North” office as part of a broader decentralization strategy from London.

However, critics—most notably Shadow Transport Secretary Richard Holden—have accused the government of capitulating to union demands at taxpayer expense. Holden argued that the deal amounted to “paying more for less,” warning that it set a precedent for further union concessions with broader fiscal implications.

In addition to the Avanti West Coast deal, a separate agreement with drivers for LNER, the east coast mainline operator, includes a 12 percent pay rise over four years and modifications to working conditions such as relaxed sick note requirements and the move from printed to digital staff rosters. LNER, which was nationalized in 2018, generally offers better punctuality and reliability than Avanti, with roughly 72 percent of its trains arriving on time.

The Aslef union has endorsed the agreements and is consulting its members on ratification. The union’s prior financial support for Labour—including over £300,000 in 2024—has added a political dimension to the negotiations, with some observers suggesting the deals reflect the government’s sensitivity to union influence amid internal party dynamics.

Burnham is scheduled to make his first Commons statement as prime minister this week, during which he is expected to address broader economic challenges, including the cost of living, and outline his government’s approach to public services and industrial relations going forward.