Burnham bounce: Labour leapfrogs Farage in polls after he loses voters to Restore

By the Editorial Team · Saturday, August 29, 2026

Labour has surpassed Reform UK in recent polls for the first time in over a year, with 27 percent support compared to Reform UK’s 23 percent, while the Conservatives trail at 18 percent. This shift reflects growing public confidence in Labour’s economic policies under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, though upcoming parliamentary decisions on taxation and welfare may impact future voter sentiment.

Labour has overtaken Reform UK in recent opinion polls, marking the first time in over a year that the party led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham has surpassed Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. According to a poll conducted by BMG Research and released in late August 2026, Labour now holds 27 percent support, four points ahead of Reform UK’s 23 percent, with the Conservative Party trailing in third at 18 percent.

The poll indicates that Labour’s increased standing follows Burnham’s recent focus on addressing the cost of living crisis, including policies aimed at reducing energy bills by cutting VAT and restoring a £2 cap on bus fares outside London. These measures appear to have bolstered public trust in Labour’s handling of economic issues. Labour’s lead on economic competence rose to 24 percent, compared to 16 percent for the Conservatives. Burnham’s personal approval rating also improved, reaching +6 percent, the highest for a British prime minister since Boris Johnson, and the only leader with a positive net rating in the survey. By contrast, Reform UK’s Farage stood at -20 percent, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at 0, Green Party leader Zack Polanski at -21, and former Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at -44.

However, the upcoming parliamentary session and the October budget present challenges that could influence future public opinion. The government faces critical decisions on taxation and welfare spending, including potential tax rises to fund increased defence spending. Observers note that voter judgments on economic leadership may remain tentative until these financial plans are clarified.

The poll also suggests a fragmentation within the right-wing electorate. The Restore Britain party, garnering 5 percent support, has drawn approximately one in ten Reform UK voters, as well as attracting some non-traditional voters. This shift may erode Reform UK’s base, as Restore’s emergence presents a new dynamic on the political right.

Public attitudes towards welfare reform also surfaced in the survey. A majority—56 percent—express support for cutting Personal Independence Payment (PIP) benefits and replacing some cash disability support with employment-focused alternatives, such as job support, physiotherapy, and training. This perspective aligns with calls from some economists urging the government to reconsider aspects of disability benefits in favour of encouraging workforce participation.

On immigration, Reform UK maintains a narrow lead over Labour as the party viewed most capable of handling the issue, though Labour has reduced this gap by four percentage points. Declines in small boat crossings and asylum hotel usage have also shaped voter perceptions in recent months.

The BMG Research poll surveyed a representative sample of 1,579 adults across Great Britain between August 25 and 26, 2026, providing a snapshot of current political sentiment as the government prepares to navigate forthcoming economic and social challenges.

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