Prime Minister Andy Burnham has declined to commit to increasing defence spending to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, instead reiterating a pledge to meet a longer-term NATO target of 3.5 percent by 2035. The announcement came amid concerns from defence experts and former military officials who warn that a potential Russian attack on a NATO member could occur before the end of the decade, requiring immediate readiness.
Burnham, speaking at a social care event and later during a visit to Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria, emphasized honoring existing NATO commitments beyond the current parliamentary term, framing the 2035 target as the official national goal. He indicated plans to fund defence commitments in part by reducing welfare expenditure, citing a perceived over-reliance on benefits among people in their twenties. “If we change those things then we will open up the way of meeting our commitments on defence,” he said, arguing the country must shift from “paying for failure” toward “investing in people’s success.”
The Prime Minister also announced an £8.4 billion investment in the next phase of building four new Dreadnought-class nuclear-armed submarines, which will replace the Royal Navy’s aging Vanguard fleet. This investment is part of a broader £63.6 billion allocation to the Defence Nuclear Enterprise over the next four years, marking a £20 billion increase over the previous period. Burnham highlighted the economic benefits of the project, pointing to thousands of jobs and apprenticeships it would support, particularly in communities like Barrow-in-Furness, which have faced long-term economic challenges.
Despite Burnham’s position, John Healey, who recently resigned as defence secretary and now serves as chancellor, has publicly urged that the UK should reach the 3 percent spending target by 2030. Healey has expressed concerns that without this commitment, Britain risks lagging behind European allies and leaving itself vulnerable amid escalating tensions with Russia. Defence figures including Col Hamish de Bretton-Gordon and Col Richard Kemp have criticized the 2035 target as insufficiently urgent, with some deeming it “too little, too late” given the geopolitical risks. They argue that failure to commit to increased defence spending by 2030 could be perceived as a sign of weakness, potentially emboldening adversaries and undermining NATO solidarity.
The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that reaching 3 percent by 2030 would require an additional £17.3 billion in defence funding by 2029-30. Burnham’s reluctance to endorse the earlier target contrasts with the stance of his predecessor and has raised questions about Labour’s prioritization of national security.
Separately, Burnham has also attracted international attention following his first conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who praised plans to open up North Sea oil drilling as a potential driver of economic growth. The U.S. leader reiterated his long-standing criticism of UK immigration policy during the call, though he appeared less familiar with Burnham personally.
As the UK faces a complex security environment, the debate over the pace and scale of defence spending rises in prominence, raising questions about how the government will balance military readiness, economic investment, and welfare reform in the years ahead.