Campaigners have warned that the UK government risks undermining its climate goals if it proceeds with a series of key policy decisions without considering their combined environmental impact. These decisions, expected in the coming months, include approving new North Sea oil drilling, expanding Heathrow Airport, revising electric vehicle (EV) sales targets, and reducing financial support for heat pump installations.

Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth (FoE), in a letter addressed to Prime Minister Andy Burnham, emphasized that the cumulative emissions from these policies could reach 402 million tonnes of CO2 over the next 25 years. This total would exceed the annual emissions produced by 106 coal-fired power plants, potentially derailing the UK’s ability to meet its carbon budgets and achieve net zero emissions by mid-century.

Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace, cautioned that the government appears to acknowledge the urgency of addressing climate change but may still inadvertently reverse progress made thus far. “The Burnham government is facing a series of big decisions over the next few months that could define its legacy on climate,” he said. “There’s a real risk they could still sleepwalk into reversing the strong progress the UK has made so far.”

Last week, the government approved drilling at the Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea, despite concerns that the project would generate only 27 new jobs, deliver little economic relief amid rising living costs, and yield limited tax revenue. The fossil fuel industry is now lobbying for permission to develop the Rosebank oilfield, located west of the Shetland Islands. This project is more controversial, as it would result in significantly higher emissions.

Meanwhile, car manufacturers have pushed for relaxing the government’s EV sales mandates. Current targets require 80% of new car and van sales to be electric by 2030, with a complete phase-out of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2035. Industry proposals have sought to allow up to half of sales to remain petrol or diesel by 2030, a change that analysts say could lead to emissions approximately 60% as high as those expected from the Rosebank project, given the long lifespan of vehicles.

Expansion of Heathrow Airport is another contentious issue. Chancellor John Healey has expressed strong support for the airport’s growth, suggesting it could boost economic development. However, campaigners argue that the UK is already undertaking expansions at other airports, such as Gatwick, and that further expansion at Heathrow would conflict with climate objectives.

Healey is also expected to reduce funding for the domestic boiler upgrade scheme, which provides grants to encourage homeowners to install electric heat pumps instead of gas boilers. Campaigners warn that cutting this program could slow the transition to low-carbon heating, despite the potential for significant reductions in gas consumption.

Doug Parr stressed that these decisions should not be made in isolation or hastily. “Decisions about Rosebank, Heathrow expansion, electric vehicle targets or heat pump funding should not be rushed through or made in isolation – ministers need to be far-sighted and keep track of their cumulative impact,” he said. The government has yet to respond officially to these calls for a coordinated approach to policymaking in light of the UK’s climate commitments.