Andy Burnham’s proposal to fully reinstate the northern leg of the HS2 high-speed rail project to Manchester faces significant financial and logistical challenges, according to industry experts. John Smith, founder and outgoing chief executive of GB Railfreight, expressed skepticism about the feasibility of Burnham’s pledge, citing the high costs involved in completing major civil engineering works, including the reconstruction of Manchester Piccadilly station and ongoing expenditure on London Euston station.

Burnham, considered a potential prime ministerial candidate, has revived the plan to extend HS2 from its current terminus in Birmingham to Manchester, a section that was cancelled by the previous Conservative government in 2023. His plan involves utilising land already acquired for the original phase two and integrating the route with Northern Powerhouse Rail, a new line linking Liverpool and Manchester to the London–Birmingham phase one segment of HS2. However, Burnham’s proposal would entail slower train speeds and could potentially lead to an increase in business rates to fund the extension.

Smith advocated for a more modest approach, suggesting that extending HS2 to Crewe would be a more affordable and practical interim solution. He argued this would alleviate congestion bottlenecks on the West Coast Main Line more effectively than stopping the route at Birmingham, where capacity constraints are already significant. According to Smith, terminating HS2 at Birmingham would force trains to divert onto heavily congested existing lines, notably around Colwich, reducing the project’s overall benefits for both passenger and freight services.

The public accounts committee has raised concerns about the broader Northern Powerhouse Rail initiative, which is estimated to cost around £45 billion and is at risk of exceeding its budget without a clear delivery plan. HS2 itself has seen costs escalate, with recent projections suggesting the full scheme could surpass £100 billion even without reinstating the northern extension.

In response, the Department for Transport emphasised that HS2 will significantly increase capacity on the southern section of the West Coast Main Line by introducing dedicated tracks between London and Birmingham. The department also indicated that it is exploring various means to enhance capacity beyond Birmingham, including improved scheduling, longer trains, and the commitment to build a new line from Birmingham to Manchester.

Burnham’s office has not provided further comment on the proposal. The debate over HS2’s northern expansion highlights ongoing tensions between ambition, cost, and practical railway constraints as the UK seeks to upgrade its rail infrastructure.