The UK government faces growing criticism over its defence spending strategy amid concerns about meeting NATO targets and countering potential threats from Russia. General Sir Richard Barrons, a former head of joint forces command and co-author of a strategic review of Britain’s armed forces, expressed doubts that current plans will allow the UK to “credibly deter” Russia by 2030 without a significant and faster increase in defence funding.
Sir Richard cautioned that reliance on recently announced defence projects, such as the £8.4 billion investment in new nuclear-armed Dreadnought submarines, should not mask deeper issues in the nation's broader defence budget. He noted that this submarine funding is part of a pre-existing £63.6 billion investment plan approved years ago, and accused Prime Minister Andy Burnham of using such programs as a “smokescreen” to avoid addressing wider budgetary shortfalls. He emphasized that the UK risks falling short of NATO’s 3.5 percent of GDP defence spending target by the 2035 deadline and warned that delaying substantial budget increases could undermine national security.
Burnham has given his clearest indication yet that the defence budget may not reach the targeted 3 percent of GDP by 2030, instead framing commitments around meeting the 3.5 percent goal over a longer timeframe beyond the next parliamentary term. Speaking during a visit to Barrow-in-Furness, he stressed the importance of fiscal discipline, cautioning against repeated past mistakes involving unfunded spending promises. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting echoed this view, stating that while a 3 percent spending level was under consideration, it depended on future budgets and spending reviews.
The position contrasts with that of John Healey, the former defence secretary and current Chancellor, who resigned during Keir Starmer’s leadership. Healey has advocated for the UK to reach 3 percent defence spending by 2030. He urged that upcoming spending reviews establish a “convincing, credible path” to the NATO target of 3.5 percent, warning that many NATO members will have met or exceeded this figure by 2030 and that failure to do so risks undermining Britain’s leadership role and European security amid potential Russian aggression.
A senior military source highlighted the importance of visible investment in defence for maintaining the morale of service personnel and the credibility of Britain’s commitments within military alliances. Meanwhile, some within the Ministry of Defence have viewed Healey’s appointment to the Treasury as a sign of possible increased defence funding before the next election, though Sir Richard expressed skepticism that this would come to pass.
John Foreman, a former defence attache to Moscow and Kyiv, described the current defence program as “overheated and unfunded” and stressed the urgency of setting a clear trajectory toward the 3.5 percent target. He suggested that any such moves are unlikely to occur before the next general election, noting political risks for Burnham associated with increasing defence spending.
As strategic pressures mount, the UK faces a complex balancing act between fiscal responsibility, political considerations, and the need to strengthen national defence capabilities in a shifting security environment.