Prime Minister Andy Burnham has attributed the recent surge in small boat crossings across the English Channel to the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, a claim that has been challenged by immigration analysts who argue that the increase is unrelated to Brexit.
Burnham has pointed to the end of the Dublin Convention as a key factor behind the rise in irregular migration. The Dublin Convention, which the UK adhered to before leaving the EU, allowed asylum seekers who had already applied for refugee status in one member state to be returned to that country. According to Burnham, losing access to this mechanism has hindered the UK’s ability to return asylum seekers to other European countries, thereby contributing to the increase in crossings.
However, data from 2019, the last full year the UK operated under the Dublin rules, indicate that the actual number of transfers was limited. That year, 263 asylum seekers were sent from the UK to other EU states, while 714 were transferred from EU countries back to the UK. Similar figures from 2016-17 showed 676 total returns, suggesting that the process did not significantly reduce the number of asylum seekers residing in the UK.
More broadly, in 2019 the UK received over 35,000 asylum applications. Many applicants remained in the country through irregular means such as overstaying visas or arriving via other methods like freight transport. Analysts argue that being part of the EU did not markedly affect the number of enforced returns of these individuals compared to current figures.
Critics also highlight that many asylum seekers arriving in the UK have previously passed through multiple safe countries, including France. This challenges the principle that refugees should seek asylum in the first safe country they reach. Instead, it is suggested that some migrants are effectively "shopping around" for the most advantageous destination. The UK’s social support system, including access to benefits and accommodations, alongside a cautious approach to deportation, is seen as a factor making it an attractive destination.
Experts argue that the rise in small boat crossings can be more accurately attributed to tightened border controls in other channels, which have closed off alternate routes into the UK. Consequently, migrants who manage to embark from French beaches expect to be intercepted mid-Channel, provided shelter, and often granted residence, perpetuating the cycle. This pattern, they contend, is driven by incentives rather than Brexit.
In addition to immigration, Burnham has linked his broader economic proposals to relations with the EU. He has advocated for rejoining the single market or customs union as a means to rejuvenate the British economy. Recently, Burnham suggested reinstating free movement of people from the EU, a statement later denied by officials at Downing Street. Observers view these contradictory messages as attempts to deflect attention from the government’s handling of both immigration and economic issues.
Overall, critics maintain that Burnham’s explanations for the Channel crossings and economic challenges represent a diversion from the government’s ongoing difficulties in managing these complex issues.