Prime Minister Mark Carney has scheduled three federal by-elections for Aug. 31 in an effort to solidify his government’s slim majority ahead of Parliament’s fall session. The contests will take place in the ridings of North Vancouver–Capilano in British Columbia, Beaches–East York in Toronto, and Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in Quebec. The Quebec seat, currently held by the Conservatives, represents a key opportunity for the Liberals to expand their parliamentary lead.

The vacancies in British Columbia and Ontario arise from the resignations of former ministers Jonathan Wilkinson and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, respectively. Wilkinson left his North Vancouver–Capilano seat in April after his appointment as Canada’s Ambassador to the European Union, while Erskine-Smith stepped down earlier this month. Both ridings have historically been Liberal strongholds.

Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, located in Quebec’s Saguenay region, was held by Conservative MP Richard Martel since a 2018 by-election before he was appointed to the Senate earlier this month by Carney. The riding, predominantly francophone, has shifted between the Bloc Québécois, NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives over the past two decades, making it a competitive seat. Poll aggregator 338Canada currently rates the contest as a three-way race involving the Liberals, Conservatives, and Bloc Québécois.

Political analyst Éric Grenier noted the Liberals’ nomination of Martel to the Senate appears tactical, giving them a chance to gain the riding. He described Chicoutimi–Le Fjord as a highly nationalist seat outside of Montreal and its suburbs, making it a significant test for the Liberals in Quebec despite Carney’s perceived weaknesses with francophone voters. A Liberal victory here would further weaken Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s caucus, which has seen members switch allegiance to the Liberals in recent months.

The Liberals currently hold a narrow majority with 174 seats, two above the 172-seat threshold. Several other seats are now or soon will be vacant, including those held by opposition members such as NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Bloc MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay in Quebec, as well as Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall in Saskatchewan. Carney has not yet called by-elections in all these ridings, with the Bloc seat likely to remain vacant until after the Quebec provincial election in October. Analysts suggest this delay could benefit the Liberals by enabling them to concentrate resources on the August contests and increase their majority heading into the fall sitting of Parliament.

Bloc Leader Yves François Blanchet criticized Carney’s decision to hold the by-elections during the summer, accusing the Prime Minister of avoiding democratic scrutiny. “He doesn’t want people to dwell on his record,” Blanchet said in a statement.

The Liberal Party has announced candidates for all three ridings, including Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, in North Vancouver–Capilano, and Tanveer Shahnawaz, former manager of Erskine-Smith’s constituency office, in Beaches–East York. In Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, the Liberal candidate is Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and former president of a Quebec milk producers’ organization. The Bloc has nominated Caroline Dubé, and the Conservatives have selected Régis Gaudreault for the Quebec riding. Conservative Stephen Curran will run in North Vancouver–Capilano, while the party has yet to announce a candidate for Beaches–East York.

Grenier anticipates a straightforward Liberal win in Toronto but sees the race as a measure of the New Democratic Party’s strength under new leader Avi Lewis. “If the NDP is ever going to win seats in Toronto again, they should be able to put up at least something in Beaches–East York,” he said.