Egypt appears unlikely to formally join the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement despite its verbal commitment to support Saudi Arabia in its conflict with the Houthis, according to Jonathan Hessen, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).

Hessen’s remarks followed statements by Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdellaty during the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting, where he indicated that Egypt was contemplating joining the pact and expressed willingness to assist Saudi Arabia as needed in its ongoing war. “Whatever is being asked by the Saudis, of course we will respond,” Abdellaty said.

However, Hessen noted that Egypt’s offer is largely symbolic and unlikely to lead to active military involvement. On the same day Abdellaty made his comments, Egypt hosted a trilateral meeting in Cairo involving the defense ministers of Cyprus and Greece. Hessen suggested this development signals that Cairo’s engagement with the Mecca pact remains tentative, particularly given its cautious stance amid regional disputes including those involving Turkey and Cyprus.

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement obliges member states to consider an attack on one as an attack on all, which raises potential conflicts stemming from Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with Israel. Article 6 of that treaty prohibits Egypt from entering treaties that contradict or undermine its commitments to Israel, complicating any formal alliance that might place Cairo at odds with Israeli interests.

Hessen emphasized that the motivations behind membership in the pact differ among its members, each focusing on specific regional security threats: Saudi Arabia concentrates on countering the Houthis; Pakistan regards India and Iran as primary concerns; and Turkey views Israel as a central strategic challenge. These divergent priorities complicate the formation of a cohesive, unified alliance.

Further analysis by senior researcher Ofir Winter from the Institute for National Security Studies highlighted the strategic calculations involved. The pact serves not only as a hedge against reliance on U.S.-led security structures in the Middle East but also aims to foster an integrated military-industrial capacity within member states, addressing limitations in Western military support, particularly for Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Despite these ambitions, Hessen expressed skepticism about a fully operational alliance emerging between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. He characterized the Mecca pact as a deterrent alignment rather than one intended to translate into significant, long-term military cooperation, such as the deployment of major forces within Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, Hessen pointed out that Egypt’s current domestic and regional challenges leave it with limited capacity to engage deeply in Riyadh’s security efforts. This context, combined with legal and strategic constraints, suggests that Cairo’s potential role will remain largely confined to political signaling rather than active participation within the Mecca defense framework.