Major urban centers across California have experienced a notable decline in their child populations over the past decade, reflecting a broader national trend of families moving away from cities. An analysis of demographic shifts from 2015 to 2024 reveals that the number of children under 18 living in California’s largest cities has decreased significantly, with some areas seeing double-digit percentage drops.

San Jose, a key hub in Silicon Valley known for its high housing costs, has seen the most pronounced decline, losing approximately 20% of its population under 18. The reduction is even more striking among children under age 5, whose numbers in San Jose have dropped by 34% over the last ten years. Los Angeles, the state’s most populous city, reported a 16% decrease in its youth population during the same period. Other major California cities also saw declines: San Diego’s child population decreased by 14%, while Fresno, Sacramento, and San Francisco experienced more modest drops of 5%, 4%, and 3%, respectively. These figures pertain to cities with populations exceeding 500,000.

The decline in child populations is partially attributed to overall falling birth rates nationwide, which have dropped by about 9% over the last decade. However, experts point to additional factors influencing these migration patterns. The COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, accelerated a trend of families leaving densely populated urban areas in search of more space and affordable living arrangements. Connor O’Brien, a fellow at the Institute for Progress, highlighted that families had greater options to exit cities and took advantage of them, contributing to the outflow.

While many large cities have faced similar demographic shifts, several urban centers, primarily located in the Sun Belt region, have experienced growth in their child populations. Fort Worth, Texas, and Jacksonville, Florida, each saw an 11% increase in the number of children over the past decade. Additionally, Washington, D.C., and Seattle have witnessed their youth populations grow by approximately 10%.

These contrasting trends underscore the complex factors at play in urban demographic changes, including economic conditions, housing affordability, and quality of life considerations that influence where families choose to settle. California’s ongoing challenges with high housing costs and cost of living appear to be key drivers behind the decline in its urban child populations, prompting shifts that may have lasting impacts on the social and economic landscape of its cities.