Senior figures within the Labour Party are advocating for Andy Burnham to assume the party leadership without a contested election if he wins the upcoming Makerfield by-election, seen as a critical test of Labour’s electoral strength. Burnham, the current mayor of Greater Manchester, is standing to regain a parliamentary seat by challenging Reform UK, which made significant gains in the area during recent local elections.
The Makerfield constituency, a traditional Labour stronghold, saw Reform UK secure over 50 percent of the vote in last week’s local elections, while Labour's share plummeted to around 23 percent. Labour won the seat with a 5,400 majority in 2024, but the party’s standing has since been challenged. The national executive committee (NEC) approved Burnham’s candidacy after previously blocking him from contesting a different by-election, marking a shift in internal party dynamics.
Cabinet ministers and other senior Labour officials warn that a leadership challenge involving Wes Streeting, the party’s shadow secretary of state for health, could cause “months of factional warfare” and deepen divisions within the parliamentary party. Some insiders suggest that if Burnham secures a victory in Makerfield, Streeting should step aside to unify the party. Streeting himself has expressed support for Burnham’s candidacy, acknowledging Burnham as Labour’s “best chance of winning” the seat and prioritizing electoral success over intra-party rivalry.
The possibility of Burnham’s leadership has prompted discussions about the future direction of the party. Burnham, who has suggested policies including higher taxes, increased borrowing, public ownership of utilities, and a potential return to the European Union, is seen by some as representing a shift from the current leadership’s stance. However, there is mixed opinion within Labour’s broader membership, as Streeting is viewed as more centrist and holds support especially among the party’s right wing.
Observers note that the upcoming by-election functions as a de facto trial of Burnham’s electability versus the Reform UK challenge, providing an alternative to a traditional leadership contest. Some party members caution that a full leadership election during the summer, coinciding with events like the World Cup, could exacerbate internal conflicts and distract from connecting with voters.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faces mounting pressure from colleagues to consider his position, with reports indicating he may resign either before or soon after the result of the by-election. He is said to have privately acknowledged that overcoming a challenge from Burnham would be difficult if the latter wins Makerfield.
The by-election campaign is expected to last around four weeks, with June 18 the earliest possible vote date. Labour supporters hope that a rapid campaign will bolster Burnham’s chances by minimizing the impact of Labour’s current difficulties at the local level.
Should Burnham succeed, some within the party envision a leadership transition that might see Burnham as leader and Streeting appointed to a key Cabinet role such as chancellor, aiming to balance party unity with electoral pragmatism. Conversely, a defeat for Burnham would be viewed as a serious setback for both his political future and the party’s prospects in traditional Labour areas, underscoring the challenges the party faces as it seeks to reconnect with voters ahead of the next general election.