Taipei’s upcoming mayoral election has drawn significant attention as Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Puma Shen, 44, gains momentum amid a climate of heightened cross-Strait tensions. Shen officially launched his campaign on October 4, attracting a large turnout that some estimates placed between 50,000 and 120,000 attendees. His campaign has been informally dubbed the “ocean current,” a play on his name, suggesting a rising political force in Taiwan’s capital.

Shen, a former criminologist who entered politics in 2024 as an at-large legislator, is challenging the incumbent mayor, Chiang Wan-an of the Kuomintang (KMT). Chiang, 47, has served one term and previously held two legislative terms. He is noted for being Taipei’s youngest mayor after his election in 2022, inheriting a political legacy tied to the prominent Chiang family, historically linked to the KMT. Despite his established political background and strong public image, recent polls show the race tightening. A mid-September survey indicated Chiang at 41.7 percent support, with Shen closely trailing at 40.5 percent.

Shen’s rise has stirred controversy beyond local politics. He is one of 14 Taiwanese figures blacklisted by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office as a “diehard separatist” for his pro-independence stance and his involvement with the Kuma Academy, an organisation focusing on civil defense and raising awareness about Chinese influence operations. In October 2025, Chinese authorities in Chongqing escalated scrutiny by initiating a criminal investigation against Shen on suspected secession charges — the first such action taken against a sitting Taiwanese lawmaker.

The campaign event also spotlighted TV host and writer Kevin Tsai, who attended ostensibly to gauge candidates for interviews. His presence at a DPP event prompted backlash from Mainland Chinese platforms and businesses, including the removal of promotional material featuring him and critical commentary from Chinese state-affiliated social media accounts. Tsai’s case illustrates the ongoing challenge faced by Taiwanese entertainers and public figures who maintain careers across the Taiwan Strait, often criticized for perceived positions on Taiwan’s independence.

Experts differ in assessing the potential impact of Shen’s possible election victory on cross-Strait relations. Huang Kwei-bo, a professor at National ChengChi University, suggested that Shen’s win would likely lead to the suspension of the long-standing Twin Cities Forum between Taipei and Shanghai, marking a setback in bilateral city-level cooperation. Conversely, Taiwan’s Soochow University associate professor Chen Fang-yu argued that Beijing’s broad labeling of Taiwan’s diverse political views as separatist fails to grasp Taiwanese society’s complexity and that the election result may not shift dynamics substantially.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister Liang Wen-chieh emphasized the principle of free electoral choice for Taiwanese citizens, expressing the government’s opposition to interference from the Chinese Communist Party in Taiwan’s democratic processes.

Both candidates have expressed support for Kevin Tsai amid the controversy. Chiang underscored respect for Tsai’s freedom of expression, while Shen criticized the backlash against Tsai as unfair, noting Tsai’s role in seeking to understand the candidates’ viewpoints.

The Taipei mayoral race is part of Taiwan’s larger nine-in-one local elections scheduled for November 28, which will elect over 11,000 local officials across the island. Given the historical significance of the Taipei mayoralty as a stepping stone to the presidency, the outcome is viewed as potentially influential for Taiwan’s future political trajectory and its relations with China. Whether Shen’s “ocean current” momentum endures until election day remains uncertain, as both candidates intensify their campaigns in the coming weeks.