At a time when artificial intelligence (AI) evolves at an unprecedented pace, diplomatic efforts between the United States and China are increasingly seen as crucial to preventing new forms of technological conflict. This week’s summit in Washington, hosted by former President Donald Trump, highlighted the complex challenge of managing emerging AI risks alongside broader geopolitical tensions.

The summit brought President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping together, aiming to discuss the future of AI development, its safety, and the potential for cooperation. Trump’s approach emphasized personal diplomacy, including a state gala featuring prominent American AI companies and a ceremonial reception for Xi. However, observers suggest that while these gestures might reassure markets to some extent, the event was unlikely to yield substantive agreements on AI governance or broader strategic concerns.

Central to the challenge is the ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and China, compounded by disagreements over trade, Taiwan, and the extent of technology sharing. China's ambitions under Xi, who wields unprecedented authority yet faces internal tensions between the country’s military and technology sectors, complicate efforts toward a balanced partnership. Although Xi recently dismissed some high-ranking generals, signaling attempts to consolidate control, domestic uncertainties remain.

Experts note that dialogue between the two powers is essential to achieving what Beijing describes as “constructive strategic stability.” The Cold War experience of U.S.-Soviet arms control offers a historical example of how summits helped establish confidence-building measures to prevent accidental conflict. However, the challenge in the current era centers on AI-enhanced cyber threats and ensuring that technological advances do not trigger unintended escalations or become tools for terrorism.

Both nations have incentives to cooperate on AI safety. Neither side wants autonomous systems inadvertently causing harm or facilitating attacks that could be classified as acts of war. Yet, prospects for a formal AI arms control treaty appear slim. Success would require significant patience, mutual concessions, and recognition of the intricate dependencies that exist—such as U.S. reliance on Chinese AI contributions in fields like pharmaceutical innovation.

Any progress would likely need to be accompanied by broader defensive measures, including enhanced preparedness for biosecurity threats amplified by AI capabilities. Yet, China’s conditions for deeper cooperation reportedly hinge on U.S. concessions on Taiwan, with Xi pressing for a halt to arms deliveries to the island. This demand signals Beijing’s desire to secure its sphere of influence in the region, a proposition U.S. policymakers have shown little willingness to accept.

While the summit may serve as a starting point to stabilize U.S.-China relations, analysts caution that without realistic compromises and a clear framework for engagement, it risks boosting Xi’s global standing without enhancing security. The delicate balance between competition and cooperation over AI and other strategic issues continues to challenge both nations as they navigate an evolving geopolitical landscape.