Canada is moving to increase its production and export of fossil fuels, reversing years of cautious debate over reducing reliance on oil and gas. The strategic shift follows two recent geopolitical developments linked to US policy under President Donald Trump: a tariff dispute early in Trump’s second term and escalating conflict involving the United States and Iran. These events exposed the vulnerabilities of depending heavily on a limited number of trade partners and unstable regions for energy supplies.

In response, Ottawa is seeking to expand its energy export capacity and diversify its markets. To this end, Canadian officials are drawing inspiration from Saudi Arabia’s approach to safeguarding its oil exports. During the 1980s, in the wake of the Iran-Iraq war, Saudi Arabia constructed the 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline, which connects its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This route was intended to secure crude shipments in case access through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz was compromised—a scenario that ultimately occurred following the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran in late February. When the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, Saudi Arabia’s alternate pipeline allowed it to maintain significant export volumes, mitigating the risk of a broader global energy crisis.

Canada plans to implement a similar strategy with the Pacific Link pipeline, which Prime Minister Mark Carney announced earlier this month will be fast-tracked for approval. The pipeline is projected to transport up to one million barrels per day of crude oil from Alberta’s production hubs to the west coast, roughly doubling the capacity provided by the existing Trans Mountain pipeline. The Pacific Link would enhance access to Asian markets as well as the US West Coast, aligning with Canada’s broader goal of expanding its export partnerships beyond traditional routes.

Past pipeline projects in Canada have encountered substantial resistance from environmental groups and Indigenous communities, leading to delays and cancellations. Despite these challenges, Energy Minister Tim Hodgson has indicated that the government remains committed to advancing the Pacific Link pipeline, with construction expected to begin as early as September next year.

This renewed focus on fossil fuel exports signals a pivot in Canadian energy policy, driven by shifting international relations and a reassessment of the nation’s role in global energy markets.