Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled a series of multibillion-dollar federal spending initiatives on Thursday targeting infrastructure projects in British Columbia and Alberta, but economists have raised concerns about the lack of financial clarity surrounding the announcements. Speaking first in Vancouver alongside B.C. Premier David Eby, and later in Calgary with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Carney highlighted plans for significant investments, including a new southern route for an oil pipeline to the West Coast led by the federally owned Trans Mountain Corporation.

Despite the broad scope of the proposals, government officials have not disclosed key details such as the annual federal expenditure, the breakdown between direct spending and loans, or the potential impacts on Ottawa’s budget deficit and debt. These specifics are expected to emerge with the government’s budget scheduled for release this fall.

Don Drummond, a professor at Queen’s University’s School of Policy Studies and a former senior finance official, expressed frustration at the opacity of the federal spending announcements. “I’ve been involved with budgets in one way or another since 1977 and I’ve never seen such a lack of transparency,” he said. Drummond, who co-authors the C.D. Howe Institute’s annual shadow budget analyzing federal fiscal projections, lamented the uncertainty about whether the funds represent loans, loan guarantees, or capital purchases under accrual accounting. “The answer to all of the above is: ‘I don’t know,’” he added.

Regarding the pipeline initiative, the federal government has not released an official cost estimate. However, Alberta’s submission to the federal Major Projects Office suggested the project could range from $35.2 billion to $43.7 billion. The provincial report described the proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline as “a much bigger project” than the Trans Mountain Expansion Project completed in 2024, noting that the new pipeline would be longer, wider, and capable of transporting a higher volume of oil. The proposal details a southern route terminating at the Roberts Bank port terminal, where oil exports would be loaded onto tankers bound primarily for Asian markets.

In British Columbia, Ottawa has committed roughly $20 billion in federal funding, though Premier Eby did not specify the time frame for this expenditure. Among the announced initiatives, the government pledged $10 billion for major infrastructure upgrades to expand capacity at the Roberts Bank terminal. Additional federal funding includes $3.9 billion allocated “through various tools” for the North Coast Transmission Line project, support covering up to a third of capital costs for the George Massey Tunnel Replacement Project (capped at $3 billion), $500 million for the expansion of the Red Chris Mine, and $630 million aimed at supporting child care services in the province.

Tyler Meredith, a former fiscal policy adviser to the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau, suggested it is premature to expect detailed spending breakdowns for the pipeline project. Pointing to the cost overruns of the initial Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project, he noted that it has since become a valuable government asset generating returns. Meredith stated that more comprehensive financial details should await project approval.

Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group, acknowledged that some of the uncertainty arises from ongoing negotiations around the pipeline’s financing structure. Jean indicated that the government might tap into existing funds such as the Canada Infrastructure Bank or the Canada Strong Fund to support these projects, but emphasized that no clear information has been provided on such allocations. “It’s very difficult to figure out what was precommitted or not,” he said, highlighting the broader challenges analysts face in assessing the fiscal implications of the announcements.