Mark Carney remains resolute in his stance against the United States amid ongoing tensions over trade and energy policies, despite the potential economic fallout for Canada. The former Canadian prime minister’s firm approach follows growing friction with former US President Donald Trump, particularly regarding the recently canceled Keystone XL pipeline project, which was initially designed to transport oil from Alberta to US refineries.
Trump, who has expressed interest in reviving the pipeline, aligns this with his broader support for fossil fuels, a key component of his economic platform. The pipeline's cancellation under President Joe Biden marked a point of contention, with Trump criticizing Canadian policies and leveraging the issue in his political rhetoric.
Domestic political backing appears strong for Carney, as polls indicate 76 percent of Canadians favor withdrawing from certain agreements with the United States, despite the potential risks to jobs. Carney attributes this support to public sentiment against perceived US bullying, a dynamic that gained prominence during the 2025 Canadian election. That year, conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was initially favored to win until Trump’s public remarks, which referred to Canada in a patronizing manner, shifted public opinion in favor of Carney. The new government declared a clear stance that Canada will “never, under any circumstance, become part of the United States.”
Trump continued to capitalize on anti-Canadian sentiment, posting on his social media platform Truth Social that “Canada wants the benefits of being a state, without being one.” Despite this, Carney’s approval ratings have remained above 50 percent, contrasting sharply with Trump’s current ratings, which stand at the lowest of either of his presidencies, hovering in the low thirties. Recent polling by The Economist shows Trump holds negative approval in 47 out of 50 US states.
The animosity between Trump and Canada has deep roots, tracing back to his opposition in the 1990s to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which he blamed for the decline of US manufacturing jobs. Although Trump renegotiated NAFTA into the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020, calling it “the largest, fairest, most balanced and modern trade agreement ever,” he has since declined to re-sign the accord. His current stance suggests a willingness to forgo existing trade agreements in favor of what he considers better national terms.
Underlying these developments is the approach to the upcoming US midterm elections, with Trump taking a more hardened position on trade possibly to consolidate political support, particularly in key regions like Quebec. If the Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives as many forecasts predict, it could limit Trump’s ability to employ emergency tariffs unilaterally, as congressional oversight over trade policy is likely to increase. Additionally, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule on the extent of presidential power under existing trade laws.
Carney’s strategy appears to hinge on the assumption that political calculations ahead of the November elections in the US will prompt a return to negotiations, where a more measured and mutually beneficial agreement may be achievable.