Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is promoting a new pipeline project as a means to revitalize the country’s oil industry, increase production and exports, and reduce dependence on the United States. However, industry experts and regional stakeholders caution that the pipeline is unlikely to restore the large-scale employment levels experienced during the previous oil boom in Alberta.
The proposed pipeline, which Carney supports, would transport approximately one million barrels of crude oil daily from the Alberta oil sands to a Pacific Coast port, enhancing export capacity to Asian markets. Speaking during a recent visit to Fort McMurray—an oil hub once dubbed “Fort McMoney” due to its robust job market—Carney refrained from describing the project as a return to boom times. Instead, he characterized the prospects as “sustained growth.”
Industry forecasts and interviews with officials, workers, and academics suggest that rising oil sands output will be driven more by automation and efficiency improvements than by significant job creation. According to an August forecast by Energy Safety Canada, employment in the oil sands sector is expected to decline by roughly 4% (around 920 jobs) by 2035, even as production grows by 6%. The group’s spokesperson noted that a new pipeline to the West Coast could potentially slow or reverse job losses but would not likely result in a substantial increase in permanent positions, citing a prevailing trend toward producing greater volumes with fewer workers.
Economic observers such as Dianna De Sousa, CEO of the Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce, emphasize that employment dynamics today are distinct from those of 15 years ago. The previous boom period—from roughly 2000 to 2014—saw massive investments in mega-mines and infrastructure to extract bitumen from northern Alberta. That era was marked by high-paying jobs that attracted workers nationwide, often on fly-in, fly-out arrangements due to local housing shortages.
This period came to an end following the 2015 oil price crash and a major wildfire in 2016. Further pressure came from increased investor attention to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, coupled with the more stringent climate policies implemented under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. These factors contributed to the exit of several international oil companies and led to a significant reduction in capital investment in the oil sands, from a 2014 peak of C$35 billion to C$14.2 billion in 2024.
The most recent major development in the region was Suncor’s Fort Hills project, which began operations in 2018. Meanwhile, the potential for renewed economic growth through the pipeline faces political scrutiny from diverse angles. Environmental advocates criticize efforts to expedite regulatory approval as risking ecological harm, while industry supporters argue for deregulation to accelerate growth, increase wages, and create more jobs. Additionally, subdued employment prospects could intensify separatist sentiments in Alberta, although a referendum on pursuing independence from Canada is expected to be rejected in an upcoming vote.
A spokesperson for Carney declined to comment specifically on employment projections related to the pipeline, directing inquiries to the Department of Natural Resources, which did not respond to requests for comment.