Israel’s recent parliamentary election results have confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allied bloc failed to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, setting the stage for complex coalition negotiations. The final tally, released early Friday, showed Netanyahu’s bloc winning 53 seats, the main opposition 48, and Arab-led parties collectively winning a historic 19 seats.

Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, remains in a position to try to form a government, but the opposition could potentially form a coalition with Arab parties to unseat him. However, the path to such a government faces significant obstacles, including strong opposition from Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party. Lieberman, who opposes Netanyahu, publicly ruled out cooperating with Arab-led parties, a stance that complicates coalition-building efforts among anti-Netanyahu factions.

The election results must still be officially certified before being presented to President Isaac Herzog by next Wednesday. Herzog will then decide whom to task with forming a government, likely Netanyahu as the leader of the largest bloc, unless parties agree to back another candidate. Should coalition talks fail, early elections could be triggered as soon as next year, though Herzog has expressed a commitment to avoid such a scenario.

Tensions surrounding the election intensified when Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified unsubstantiated claims that Arab-led parties engaged in election manipulation, possibly involving foreign interference. These allegations came shortly before the final results were announced and were met with swift condemnation from opposition leaders, who accused Netanyahu of demonizing Israel’s Arab minority, which constitutes about 20% of the population and turned out to vote in record numbers. Netanyahu warned against forming a coalition with Arab parties, framing it as a betrayal.

The chair of Israel’s election committee, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, acknowledged that “serious suspicions” of foreign interference were reported to him, prompting a request to the Shin Bet internal security agency to investigate. While the allegations have not been substantiated, Netanyahu’s party has pointed fingers at Qatar, accusing the Gulf state of involvement—a claim Qatar dismissed as “ridiculous and dangerous.” Qatar maintains it acts as a mediator in regional conflicts, including with Hamas, which many Israelis regard as a terrorist group.

The Shin Bet and the election commission have cautioned against making broad accusations that could undermine public trust. The security agency emphasized that its inquiry is not intended to impugn any group of voters, and the election committee called claims of systemic violations baseless. A report on the investigation is expected within a week.

With the new Knesset scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, initial parliamentary maneuvers could see the opposition, including Arab parties led by figures who have condemned, but stopped short of designating Hamas a terrorist organization, forming a majority to elect a new speaker and influence the legislative agenda. This would be an unusual arrangement, as alliances with Arab parties have rarely been part of Israeli governing coalitions.

Public opinion remains divided. Some Israelis have rallied in support of cooperation between Jewish and Arab parties, arguing that inclusive alliances are necessary for a functional democracy. Meanwhile, Lieberman and others maintain skepticism toward Arab party collaboration, citing security concerns.

A change in leadership would likely weaken Netanyahu politically amid ongoing corruption trials and could prompt a formal investigation into Israel’s security response to the October 7 Hamas attack. The coming weeks promise a difficult and unpredictable negotiation period for Israel’s fractured political landscape.