China is experiencing a sharper population decline than official figures indicate, according to an analysis by Yi Fuxian, a Chinese-born obstetrician and demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Yi's findings challenge data released by Beijing and suggest that China’s population may have been overestimated by as many as 130 million people.

In a detailed article published in Contemporary China Review, Yi examines various records related to population, including birth statistics and COVID-19 vaccination data from different regions. By extrapolating these figures nationwide, he estimates the current population at approximately 1.27 billion, which is significantly lower than the official figure of around 1.4 billion.

Yi argues that official population data has been repeatedly adjusted to align with political objectives. He suggests that even after the government relaxed the one-child policy in 2015, successive census counts have been “fixed” to maintain consistency with prior reports. While Chinese authorities acknowledge that the population peaked and has begun to decline, they maintain this trend started in 2022. Yi contends it actually began four years earlier, in 2018.

The study draws heavily on historical census data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Yi highlights that the one-child policy, introduced in 1980, was more effective at reducing birth rates than originally anticipated. He also contends that initial population estimates feeding into policy decisions were overstated. According to Yi, early census results indicating lower birth cohorts were subsequently revised upward by tens of millions to avoid undermining the policy’s continued implementation.

Yi’s projections paint a stark demographic future. In contrast to United Nations estimates that forecast China’s population could decline to around 630 million by the end of the century, Yi places the figure closer to 320 million if current fertility trends persist. He warns that such a decline could precipitate a crisis with major social and economic implications, threatening China’s long-term ambitions to become the world’s leading economy.

However, Yi’s conclusions have been met with skepticism among some experts outside China. Critics argue it is improbable that a population decline on the scale of Japan’s would escape notice, given the resources and mechanisms available for demographic monitoring.

Nonetheless, few dispute that China is facing a rapid demographic shift. The country’s aging population and declining birth rates are widely recognized challenges that bear heavily on its workforce size, economic growth, and social services systems. Yi’s research adds a contentious but urgent perspective to ongoing debates over the accuracy of official data and the broader implications for China’s future.