Chinese crude oil imports from the Gulf region have shown a strong rebound after a period of disruption linked to the conflict involving Iran and significant declines in domestic inventories. According to Chinese customs data, shipments from the Middle East increased by 25.7 percent month-on-month to reach 13.8 million tonnes in September. This marks the third consecutive monthly rise in imports from the region.
Analysts attribute the renewed demand largely to sustained inventory drawdowns within China and competitive pricing strategies by Gulf producers. Xu Muya, a senior crude oil analyst at data intelligence firm Kpler, noted that China's increased purchases are being driven by a sharp rise in Saudi Arabian supplies to Asia. Saudi Arabia's aggressive pricing is making its crude oil more attractive amid logistical challenges and higher freight costs in the region.
Chinese refiners have also shown active interest in crude supplies from Abu Dhabi and Iraq, participating in spot tenders to secure shipments. Xu projected that imports from the Middle East are on track to surpass 5 million barrels per day in October, up from 3.5 million barrels per day in September. This level approaches the pre-conflict import volume of 5.6 million barrels per day seen in February.
Several producers in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, have reduced official selling prices to Asian buyers in an effort to maintain market share. These measures come amid heightened shipping disruptions in strategic waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, which have contributed to rising freight expenses. Saudi Arabia has also resumed crude flows through its crucial East-West pipeline following attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militant group in September.
Meanwhile, China’s onshore crude oil inventories experienced a rapid decline in September, dropping by an estimated 1.6 million barrels per day—the fastest pace on record. Data from Kpler indicates that the rate of inventory drawdown slowed to approximately 400,000 barrels per day in October to date.
The rise in Gulf imports contrasts with a decrease in shipments from Russia, China’s largest crude oil supplier. Russian crude deliveries fell by 11.4 percent in volume month-on-month in September, contributing to an overall 2 percent decline in China’s total crude imports for the month. Despite this, analysts expect Chinese seaborne imports to continue recovering in response to increased refinery demand.