General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s military leader responsible for the 2021 coup that toppled the country’s democratically elected government, has embarked on a five-day state visit to China, signaling Beijing’s willingness to formally engage with the isolated regime. The visit, beginning Monday, includes meetings with President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People, Premier Li Qiang, and other senior officials.

This trip follows closely on the heels of Min Aung Hlaing’s first official visit to India and aligns with recent diplomatic overtures from several Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, indicating a gradual regional shift toward reintegrating Myanmar’s military-led government despite widespread criticism. Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono’s recent visit to Naypyidaw marked a notable departure from Jakarta’s earlier position under former President Joko Widodo, reflecting a broader trend of ASEAN countries reassessing their approach toward Myanmar.

China’s engagement with Myanmar, which has been complicated since the military coup ousted the government of Aung San Suu Kyi more than five years ago, is driven by strategic and economic interests. Beijing has expressed solidarity with Myanmar, emphasizing their longstanding cooperation. At the heart of China’s interest is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, a critical component of its Belt and Road Initiative designed to secure overland access from Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean. This corridor has taken on greater importance following disruptions to traditional maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

China’s substantial investments in Myanmar’s infrastructure, energy, and mining sectors underscore its commitment to maintaining influence despite the ongoing civil conflict that has seen armed resistance groups challenge military control. Although Beijing reportedly disapproved of the 2021 coup, it has settled on Min Aung Hlaing’s regime as the most viable authority to safeguard its economic and strategic objectives in the region. Recent military gains by Myanmar’s armed forces, including reclaiming territory from ethnic armed groups and civilian resistance forces, align with Beijing’s desire for border stability.

International observers note that China’s official endorsement may further undermine ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus, which aimed to facilitate dialogue between Myanmar’s conflicting parties and restore democratic governance. The move also complicates diplomatic dynamics for countries such as Australia, which must balance pragmatic engagement with ASEAN while confronting ethical and legal concerns, given that Min Aung Hlaing faces charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.

Experts warn that while the anti-coup resistance and the parallel National Unity Government remain determined to challenge military rule, they face significant obstacles amid increasing international normalization of Min Aung Hlaing’s administration. The evolving diplomatic landscape suggests Myanmar’s military regime is on a path toward greater regional acceptance, raising complex questions about the future of democracy and human rights in the country.