Chinese experts are urging the government to substantially increase nationwide childcare subsidies to address the country’s declining birth rate, warning that without stronger support measures, China’s fertility rate could fall to the lowest globally. The calls come as neighboring countries South Korea and Singapore have introduced expanded family support policies aimed at reversing similar demographic challenges.
China implemented a nationwide childcare subsidy last year, providing up to 10,800 yuan (approximately HK$12,600) per child over three years for babies born from 2025 onward. However, scholars say this amount is insufficient to offset the high costs of raising children. James Liang, a business executive and demographer, proposes increasing the subsidy to 62,000 yuan per child, which he says could boost China’s fertility rate by 25 percent in the coming years. He Yafu, another independent demographer, suggests an even higher subsidy of at least 72,000 yuan per child, or roughly 1,000 yuan a month until the child reaches six years of age.
These recommendations follow recent policy moves in the region: Singapore unveiled a new child support package offering up to S$62,000 (HK$382,000) per child to counter its sharply declining birth rate, while South Korea reported the highest birth figures in nearly seven years for the first half of 2026, attributed in part to its increased childcare subsidies.
South Korea’s total fertility rate was 0.8 last year—the lowest globally but showing early signs of recovery. Singapore and China recorded rates of 0.87 and 1 respectively, all significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain stable populations.
Liang highlighted that South Korea’s enhanced subsidies, rising from 1.6 percent of GDP per capita in 2021 to an estimated 4.8 percent by 2025, played a key role in the modest revival of births. To emulate this level of support, he argued China should provide families with approximately 855 yuan per month per child until they are six years old, totaling about 62,000 yuan per child.
Despite its recent measures, China has experienced a sharp decline in annual births—from nearly 18 million in 2016 to under 8 million in 2025—with the overall population shrinking since peaking in 2021. He Yafu emphasized that reducing the burden of childrearing requires not only more substantial financial subsidies but also expanded access to affordable, high-quality childcare services to alleviate both economic and time constraints faced by families.
“The core challenges behind low fertility across East Asia include exorbitant child-rearing costs, intense educational pressures, and limited childcare availability,” He said. He urged comprehensive policy reform that lessens these obstacles in order to support families and encourage higher birth rates.