China is expected to reduce its sugar imports through the end of 2026 as global supply concerns mount and prices rise. This adjustment comes in response to a significant drop in production forecasts from Thailand, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, where output for the 2026–2027 season is projected to fall by at least 17 percent due to El Niño-related drought conditions.
China relies on imports for roughly one-third of its sugar consumption, but elevated domestic stockpiles are expected to help mitigate the impact of tighter global supply. Analysts estimate that local prices will only experience moderate increases, despite the swelling international market prices. Sugar is categorized as a strategic agricultural commodity under Beijing’s food security framework, which supports the government’s efforts to keep supply and prices stable.
According to projections, Thailand’s sugar production is expected to decline below 10 million tonnes for the upcoming season, down from around 12 million tonnes last season. This shortfall follows a broader upward trend in global sugar prices over recent months, reflecting supply concerns in major producing regions.
Niu Zhe, an analyst with commodity consultancy Sublime China Information, said that China’s policy on sugar imports has already tightened. He pointed out that the out-of-quota import window—which allows for tariffs lower than the standard 50 percent on sugar imports beyond a quota of 1.945 million tonnes—has been closed. With domestic production anticipated to remain strong and rising costs for raw sugar imports from Brazil and Thailand, China is likely to slow import volume significantly in the latter half of this year.
Official data shows that China’s sugar output for the 2025–2026 crushing season reached 12.95 million tonnes, a 16 percent increase from the previous year and the highest level in over a decade. Inventory levels in key producing regions such as Yunnan province and the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region also rose sharply by July, indicating ample domestic supply.
“Overall domestic supply will remain relatively ample, so the increase in domestic sugar prices is expected to be far smaller than that in the international market, with limited pass-through to everyday consumer prices,” Niu said.
The International Sugar Organisation recently forecast a global supply deficit of 200,000 tonnes for the 2026–2027 season. Concurrently, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that its global sugar price index surged nearly 12 percent last month, largely driven by concerns about reduced sugar beet yields in the European Union, El Niño’s impact on Asian producers, diminished output in Brazil, and India’s decision to allow duty-free raw sugar imports.
India, the world’s third-largest sugar exporter, in August authorized the import of 1 million tonnes of sugar—a move not seen in a decade—citing expectations of lower domestic sugar cane production due to reduced rainfall related to El Niño weather patterns. This policy change is expected to influence global sugar market dynamics further in the coming year.