In May 2026, during a high-profile meeting in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump announced that China would significantly increase its purchases of American agricultural products, including a pledged minimum of $17 billion annually through 2028, prorated for 2026. This commitment was seen as a potential boost for U.S. farmers who had suffered from the trade tensions and tariffs imposed during the previous years of the U.S.-China trade war.

However, data from the first seven months of 2026 indicate that China’s purchases have fallen short of these expectations. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China bought only about $3.9 billion worth of American farm goods—excluding soybeans—slightly more than the same period last year when sales were at a six-year low due to reciprocal tariffs. This level of importation remains well under the pledged target and marks a disappointing start to the new agreement.

Analysts suggest the uneven fulfillment of commitments reflects China’s cautious strategy. While Beijing appears on track to meet its soybean purchase targets—an area where U.S. exports have rebounded substantially—other commodities such as sorghum, corn, wheat, cotton, beef, and pork continue to face weak demand. For instance, corn sales to China have amounted to only around $6.9 million in 2026, a fraction of previous years’ volumes, and sorghum purchases have declined by about 20 percent from historical averages.

Experts attribute this selective approach to a combination of factors, including ongoing tariffs, structural trade barriers, and economic considerations within China. A 10 percent tariff on many U.S. agricultural products remains in place, discouraging private Chinese buyers from increasing purchases significantly. Additionally, China’s economic slowdown has dampened overall demand for imports. Some analysts argue that from a commercial perspective, expanding imports beyond soybeans is difficult for Chinese buyers given these constraints.

Moreover, observers perceive China’s buying patterns as part of a broader geopolitical balancing act in its dealings with the United States. Beijing appears to be making targeted purchases that allow it to claim progress in trade talks while avoiding full-scale concessions. Chinese state-owned enterprises, such as Sinograin, have recently accelerated soybean purchases, which some analysts interpret as a politically calculated move ahead of a planned summit between the two leaders.

U.S. officials have reaffirmed the existence of the agreement and its prorated targets, although Chinese authorities have not publicly confirmed the $17 billion figure, describing their commitments as indicative targets for expanding agricultural trade. The disparity between expectations and actual purchases may pose a challenge to upcoming diplomatic discussions, with potentially heightened scrutiny on China’s trade practices.

For American farmers, the slow uptake in purchases outside the soybean sector adds uncertainty amid a broader agricultural market still recovering from previous trade disruptions and price volatility. Industry representatives emphasize the need for consistent trade relations to ensure profitability and stability.

As the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi approaches, the question remains whether China will accelerate its purchases in other agricultural sectors to meet the publicly stated commitments or maintain a limited approach driven by underlying trade tensions and economic considerations.