Chinese businesses operating in the Gulf region are cautiously awaiting greater clarity following a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States that offers a fragile prospect for increased commercial activity. The interim agreement, reached at the end of June 2026, includes a 60-day truce, a waiver permitting Iran to export oil during this period, and the reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the deal established a framework for broader negotiations addressing Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and the long-term status of the strait.

Despite these developments, many Chinese traders and exporters remain hesitant to commit to new ventures amid ongoing uncertainties. Abbas Shi, a Chinese businessman who has facilitated partnerships between Chinese and Iranian firms since 2024, emphasized that the immediate focus is on moving a backlog of shipments stalled at sea rather than pursuing fresh business opportunities. “The first thing everyone wants is to get all the cargo that’s been sitting at sea or waiting to be shipped moving again,” he said.

Prior to the truce, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had severely restricted commercial shipping—a critical route for global energy supplies—leading to disrupted supply chains and soaring transport costs. While the agreement allows for the resumption of commercial navigation, Shi noted that regular shipping through the strait has yet to fully resume, compelling companies to rely on alternative freight methods. Rail transport, however, quickly reached capacity, with rates rising to nearly $9,000 per container amid limited availability. Shi forecasted a resurgence in demand driven by post-conflict reconstruction but expressed skepticism about the ceasefire’s durability. “Most businesspeople here don’t really believe these terms will be accepted. Honestly, it feels like all three sides are putting on a show,” he said.

Reports indicate that around 80 percent of Iran’s consumer economy has been affected by the conflict, with many businesses shuttered and widespread layoffs. Outside essential sectors such as basic necessities and agriculture, most industries have suffered significant setbacks. In response, the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce is reportedly engaging with Chinese provincial commerce departments to promote investment through barter arrangements and oil trade financing.

Similarly, Kevin Zhao, an exporter from Yiwu city in Zhejiang province specializing in small household appliances, has scaled back his Iranian operations, instead targeting markets in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Zhao attributed his withdrawal to diminished consumer spending following the Iranian rial’s depreciation and persistent peace-related uncertainties. “I’ve basically given up on Iran for now,” he said.

Shipping and logistics stakeholders also remain cautious. Since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have cut vessel traffic and elevated freight costs. Ken Chung, chairman of the Chamber of Hong Kong Logistics Industry, described the sector’s stance as “wait-and-see,” noting lingering doubts about the commitment of Iran, the US, and Israel to the ceasefire. Israel’s ongoing sporadic attacks, in particular, threaten to derail progress.

Chung stressed that even with signed memorandums, verification of compliance by all parties would be critical. Security concerns and heightened maritime insurance premiums are expected to maintain pressure on logistics expenses. “If all three sides genuinely move towards peace, it would create a much friendlier environment for everyone involved in shipping, logistics and trade,” he said, underscoring the importance of a lasting resolution to restore confidence in the Gulf’s commercial routes.