China has developed missile capabilities that could directly strike Australia, a recent report by an Australian think tank has found, underscoring a growing security concern in the region. The Lowy Institute’s analysis highlights the increasing threat posed by Beijing’s expanding arsenal of long-range and hypersonic weapons, coupled with its construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea.

According to the report, the principal danger to Australia stems from Chinese missiles launched from naval vessels and submarines, as well as from the DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile. The DF-27, which the U.S. military estimates has a range between 5,000 and 8,000 kilometers, could potentially reach Australian territory from mainland China or from positions within the contested South China Sea. The report further anticipates that China’s capacity to threaten Australia will grow over the next decade as these weapons increase in both number and sophistication. It also cites the possibility that conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missiles might augment this threat in the future.

Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, stated that the report aims to provide an objective assessment of China’s capabilities rather than speculate on Beijing’s intentions. He described the development as "the most important thing to happen to Australian security since the collapse of the Soviet Union" and called for a more informed public discussion on the matter. “The report is neither hawkish nor dovish, neither alarmist nor complacent,” Roggeveen added.

Australia revised its military strategy three years ago in response to China’s rapid naval expansion and escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington. The strategy focuses on deterring potential adversaries from northern approaches, yet Australian officials have remained cautious in publicly acknowledging the potential for a direct missile strike on the continent.

While cyberattacks, the disruption of undersea communication cables, and interference with maritime trade routes remain primary concerns, the report emphasizes that the direct missile threat is real and intensifying. Specifically, it notes the Dong Feng-26 missile’s capability to strike northern Australia if deployed from Chinese-controlled islands in the South China Sea.

The Lowy Institute’s report calls attention to the evolving nature of regional security challenges Australia faces amid China’s growing military assertiveness, urging policymakers and the public to engage more deeply with the implications of these changing dynamics.