Europe is experiencing a significant shortage of potatoes this year following a series of intense heatwaves over the summer, which have severely impacted crop yields and quality. According to analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), approximately 3.1 million tonnes of potatoes were lost due to extreme weather conditions, representing a value between €400 million and €620 million. This shortfall adds to an estimated 3.6 million tonnes that were not planted in 2026 after a record harvest in 2025.

Europe’s primary potato producers—Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands—are expected to see production drop sharply from a record 27.3 million tonnes in 2025 to between 19.5 million and 20.5 million tonnes this year, the ECIU forecast. Craig Elliott, market analyst for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at commodity price information provider Ecqua, described the situation as “potato drama,” highlighting the rapid turnaround from last year’s oversupply to this year’s deficit.

Last year’s bumper crop led to dramatically low prices, with Belgian potato prices falling nearly to zero, forcing many farmers to discard surplus produce or sell it at a loss. Additional pressures, including a new US tariff and increasing competition from Asian markets, had already encouraged farmers to reduce planting this season. However, the unforeseen series of five severe heatwaves compounded the challenges by stunting crop growth and reducing overall quality, Elliott said.

In France, yields this year have declined to their lowest levels in more than three decades, second only to the drought-affected harvest of 2022. Tom Lancaster, land, food, and farming analyst at ECU, noted that potatoes—being among Europe’s most water-intensive crops—were particularly vulnerable to the dry conditions, with some yields falling up to 20 percent compared to previous years.

Farmers on the ground have reported the detrimental effects personally. On his farm near Arras in northern France, Jean-Paul Dallene experienced no rainfall from mid-June to late August, with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius for nearly a week in August. He said his irrigated fields are expected to produce about 10 percent below normal yields, while some unirrigated plots may yield less than half the typical output per hectare. Moreover, many potatoes harvested were undersized for processing standards, which typically require tubers larger than 50 millimeters. In some fields, most potatoes measured below 40 millimeters, prompting processors to begin relaxing size specifications—a change that could result in smaller French fries reaching consumers.

Despite the production challenges, Dallene’s contracted sales to frozen-food company McCain remain priced according to pre-drought agreements, which were already reduced by about 25 percent following the previous year’s surplus. This puts producers with fixed-price contracts at financial risk, as they face lower prices amid shrinking volumes. Around 80 percent of processing potatoes in Europe are sold under contract, up from 50 to 60 percent in earlier years, locking many farmers into terms that may not reflect the current market reality.

Meanwhile, spot prices for processing potatoes have surged, reaching as high as €250 per tonne in parts of Europe compared to roughly €30 per tonne last year. French table potatoes have climbed accordingly, with prices rising from €310 to €520 per tonne as of early September. Existing stocks from the plentiful 2025 harvest are expected to supply the market through the Christmas season, but industry experts warn that shortages will likely become apparent in retail channels by Easter, potentially leading to higher prices and smaller portions for consumers.